There are rumors about isolation of Russia`s segment of Internet...

Discussion in 'The Guru's Pub' started by mbk1969, Mar 7, 2022.

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  1. user1

    user1 Ancient Guru

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    Forgive my cynicism but this just not how things have gone historically, It is easy to think that russia is isolated without europe, and that they will run out of gas maintaining a conflict like this, but its probably not the case, had this happened 20 years ago it would be true, but today is very different, China is larger than northamerica and europe combined, and they manufacture literally everything, it is extremely foolish to think that cutting off russia from europe will end this, At best your looking at a recession that will effect everyone, but mostly them. Reorganizing logistics is not something that is beyond russia's means, It also doesn't take long to start the war machine and keep it going, Its almost self-sustaining, people talk about GDP all day, like its some holy metric, but its practically meaningless for wars due to all of industries that don't actually produce anything, and all of the credit available. determining what their limits are, is actually very difficult, They have alot of unused manufacturing capacity left over from the former arms race. Questions like "how long would it take for them to re-route their logistics" are the ones that should be asked, rather than just assuming that they will be left at a loss permanently, because frankly I don't actually see anything catastrophic from the sanctions imposed. especially with the communication technologies that we have today, things that would take months or years to organize historically take days or weeks today, and require far fewer people. Nations adapt to stress, they are not rocks that can be struck lightly long enough until they crack.

    I don't want to be mistaken for an apologist or a nihilist, because I'm not, I find the conflict as appalling as anyone and I don't think that resisting is pointless, but its important not to keep puffing ourselves up because it feels good. This kind of conflict can last years or even decades. To find real solutions , we must not delude ourselves, and understand the challenges before us, rather than just making them up to suit our own needs. This is something that I think our leaders have forgotten, they are far too comfortable for how little they have actually done, and far to eager to start something that they will certainly regret.

    also If you want to spread dissent , cutting ties to the people you are trying to communicate with is very counterproductive IMO,deprivation induced spontaneous activism is a popular way to get things moving here, but it isn't over there, not to mention such motivations can be easily manipulated without clear direction.
     
  2. TroubledThoughts

    TroubledThoughts Member

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    Sanctions are really broad. The term covers a lot. Still - subjective as “sanctions” is/are, whether they hurt/annoy/anger or deny Russia of anything or anyone the antithesis of them is business as usual and that equates to rewarding genocide. Duh.

    I like to say the most with the least. Seriously, what’s with the novellas?
     
  3. Airbud

    Airbud Ancient Guru

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    sanctions are merely an alternative.
     
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  4. Clouseau

    Clouseau Ancient Guru

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    To understand what is going on here, one has to understand the history of these two countries. They have been at odds with each other for decades upon decades. Ukraine is the bread basket of the region. Always has been. Trade was opened up to the west at a tremendous cost of human lives. Shipping lanes are not as important as they once were, but still are. Ukraine wants its independence, understood. We here in the US have nothing to say about that. The ending of the civil war here is over 150 years ago. Blood was spilt then because the government did not think it was in the best interest of the country to let the southern states separate themselves, become independent. That is this war in a nutshell. Civil war is bloody. It is inhumane at any level; as any war is. Both countries should be faulted. Not just Russia. Sanctions or removing Putin from office does not solve the issue. All it accomplishes is kicking the problem down the field to be dealt with at a later time, while letting it still fester. The loss of any life diminishes us all. Unsettling as this all is, there is no easy answer or solution. The aggression and belligerence on both sides needs to stop. No one should be favoring any side in this stupidity. Neither side is innocent. Both sides have caused loss of life; directly or indirectly does not matter. Both leaders are guilty for letting it come to this. Yet the media tells us there is only one person to be blamed. That is the lie we are all being sold.
     
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  5. KissSh0t

    KissSh0t Ancient Guru

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    US has approved sale of armed drones to Ukraine.

    Type not specified, only "armed drones".

    *edit*

    Possibility they will be Switchblades.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2022
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  6. TroubledThoughts

    TroubledThoughts Member

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    Yep, 100 switchblades
     
  7. TroubledThoughts

    TroubledThoughts Member

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    I’ll hold on to my angsty persona when it comes to dictators that bomb hospitals and order indiscriminate attacks on civilians. Call it out as them being western or otherwise but just because the moment happens to be Putin a non western leader by no means makes it any less messed up or wrong. The fact that the opposition in your view committed crimes in past years doesn’t excuse the Hitler of our time. If you can’t see that, you’re literally peddling propaganda (have an agenda to proselytize)

    Poop is still poop no matter what butthole it comes out of wherever in the world, whatever place time or point in history - duh
     
  8. user1

    user1 Ancient Guru

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    there was a time when opening mcdonalds into the USSR was considered a victory, an opening in the iron curtain. most of the sanctions implemented thus far, target Russian business and people, "well doesn't the government get their money from income/consumer taxes?". in the case of russia, 36% of their federal revenue is oil/gas alone ,that are largely extracted by state-owned companies, the government profiting directly. It is obvious to target industries that the state runs(of which there are many). instead right now almost everybody is still buying russian oil and gas (because they need it), the current sanctions, which limit banking, imports/exports of goods, travel ,communications and services primarily, I guess they are good press, but lack any real power, mostly because all of the really important ones were already implemented previously after the annexation of crimea, like bans on exports of technology with military application
    If you limit sources of stable income for people, do you think they will become more or less reliant on the government that they are supposed to rebel against? last I checked no Cuban rebellion (us embargo is still in effect btw)

    I don't consider business with russian people supporting genocide, as I think most would agree. It is important not to confuse the government and the people, some of whom are essential to this forum.

    Also personally, I find it difficult to compress complicated topics into a couple sentences, especially when intentions are so easily misconstrued due to the emotional nature of these things.
     
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  9. KissSh0t

    KissSh0t Ancient Guru

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  10. anticupidon

    anticupidon Ancient Guru

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    Instagram is down in Russia. Have heard about Rossgram taking it's place.
    Now, this conflict and the fear of disconnecting Russia from main internet made me think and remember something.

    In a different thread, some time ago, I mentioned that someone from soviet diplomatic corp, briefly mentioned something about having their platforms "free" from Western mainstream hardware/software.
    Something regarding custom computing platforms (Baikal computers were mentioned) and hardened custom Linux OS used only in government's offices, and in all important medical, administration and financial branches.

    Of course, I can't prove anything and don't have the resources to investigate further.
    But it makes so much sense today. So much so, it seems too well orchestrated from along time ago.

    Call me a loon or conspiracy advocate, but this is a real and feasible possibility.
    Whomever has more information about this, please chime in.
    I would gladly listen to something logical to debunk that rumour.
     

  11. KissSh0t

    KissSh0t Ancient Guru

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    I remember seeing putin's computer screen in one of the recent video's where it showed it had Windows 7 on it.
     
  12. mbk1969

    mbk1969 Ancient Guru

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    Instagram, Facebook and opposition media sites are blocked in RU. They are still accessible through VPN. But people say that VPN services will be next to block.

    Turn from Windows to Linux is going for several years now.

    As for conspiracy theories, we can add to them another one: from our now the murder of Boris Nemtsov and attempt of murder of Alexei Navalny were a preparation to upcoming war - to remove people who can unite and lead RU people to active resistance.

    PS I am curious whether Pentagon shares its satellite footage with UA forces.
     
  13. KissSh0t

    KissSh0t Ancient Guru

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    Yes, Ukraine has real time intelligence feed from US.
     
  14. Horus-Anhur

    Horus-Anhur Ancient Guru

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    Russia had the unfortunate circumstance of being constantly being ruled by despots. For several times during the last century it was close to become a democracy.
    Putin might talk big, that this is west vs east, us vs them. As some follow up to the cold war. But in reality, it's democracy vs dictatorship.
    There was a time when Russia was allied with France and England, during the Triple Entente. There was a time when Russia was an ally of Germany, during the Three emperors League.
    There were several times, when the ruling politicians in Russia wanted to make Russia a country similar to the rest of Europe.
    And for a while, after the fall of the Soviet Union, it seemed that Russia was on the path for democracy and progress. But Putin and his cronies didn't want to leave power, lose money. So they sabotaged democracy in Russia ad created a new dictatorship.
    This is not some benign regime, fighting a righteous cause. This is a dictator, that murders opposition leaders, that represses the Russian people, that sabotages elections.

    I don't know if you have ever seen a map of the population distribution of Russia. But 80% of Russians are on the western part of the country. It's capital has always been on the western side.
    This is why it's often said that Russia is a European country. Despite having so much land in Asia.
    If it wasn´t for the communist party and now Putin, Russia would have very strong ties with the rest of Europe. Like it once did, for several centuries.

    Like I said, if China doesn't help Russia, this war will be ended sooner than later. But mind you, that even China doesn't support Russia fully.
    In the UN resolution passed a couple of days ago, condemning Russia's invasion, only Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Eritrea sided with Russia.
    China abstained. And so did former Russian allies, like Cuba and Nicaragua. The rest of thee world voted against the Russian invasion.
    China only beats Europe and the US in population. Combined, the UE and USA have the largest and most advanced army ever. The biggest economies, by a huge margin.

    Yes, this will affect everyone. Especially Europe, simple because they are right next to each other, and are trading partners.

    Russia is not as powerful as you think. Far from it.
    Remember when Izhmash was on the brink of shutting down. Only an intervention from the Kremlin and a merger with Izhmekh, saved this old and iconic company.
    Do you know about the troubles in finishing the SU-57. Especially with the engines.
    How about the troubles producing the T-14 Armata. Russia had plans to have 80% of it's tanks replaced with these, by 2016. It's now 2022 and only a few have been produced.
    Then there is the gap in technology in many areas. For example, did you know that the targeting sensor on the Armata is only a 12X sight, because Russia is so behind in tech development. Meanwhile, the M1 Abrams has a 50X.
    So the T14 has a big gun, that can reach huge distances. But it has trouble finding and acquiring targets at distance.
    Do you know about the lack of airplane parts in Russia, since sanctions were imposed?
    These are just examples of how Russia, isolated will have trouble maintaining a war.

    Maybe you think this is WW2 and Russia just needs to convert all it's factories to produce weapons and stuff.
    But even then Russia needed a lot of help from the USA, with the Lend Lease act. At one point, almost all the trucks, boots and airplane fuel, that Russia had for it's army came from the US.
    Then there was food, machine parts, airplanes, etc. Both from the US and Britain.
    This was instrumental for Russia to keep fighting Germany. And there is a chance that without this support, the Soviet Union might have fallen against ***** Germany. Although I bet few Russians will ever admit this, over patriotism.
     
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  15. fantaskarsef

    fantaskarsef Ancient Guru

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    Just to have dropped this here, I am in no way pro war, especially not when the bigger country obviously attacks the smaller one.

    But damn, somehow this thread remained civil still. I like that. You're great guys.

    Good work gurus posting here, your favourite neighborhood lurker.
    And now let's hope this crappers is over better today than tomorrow.

    Anybody got intel on what's coming out of any talks? I've heard that there's apparently a 14-point peace plan floating... true? I only heard it this morning, when yesterday it was a 4 point plan (which was proposed by the RU side).

    edit: Also, isn't every country that supports munitions, weapons, an things like intelligence (like mentioned satelite image access) actually entering the war between RU and UA? Like, the US, Poland, China etc.?
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2022

  16. Horus-Anhur

    Horus-Anhur Ancient Guru

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  17. Ryu5uzaku

    Ryu5uzaku Ancient Guru

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    Not literally entering war. This has happened throughout history where people offer help. But not literal troops or anything.
     
  18. 386SX

    386SX Ancient Guru

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    Sanctions from 2014 led the Russia openly expressing the need to be independant, even IT wise:
    https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2014-07/sanktionen-russland
    (German link, sorry! Dated 2014 btw.!!)

    Linux:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astra_Linux

    Reddit with link to source:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/linux/comments/es6a7/putin_orders_russian_government_to_move_to/

    ;)
     
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  19. Clouseau

    Clouseau Ancient Guru

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    Troubled,
    If that is all that was understood from what was written, comprehension is not a friend. One should not resort to sensationalism to form an argument. Those who spread propaganda do that. What part of both sides need to be blamed excuses Putin for what is being done? What part of both leaders should be faulted for letting it come to this excuses Putin? Your condescending attitude needs to be checked at the door. Until your attitude changes, you are ignored in any post. How many family members do you have on both sides?
     
  20. Horus-Anhur

    Horus-Anhur Ancient Guru

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