Nvidia Drops Q4 Revenue Expectation by $0.5B

Discussion in 'Frontpage news' started by Hilbert Hagedoorn, Jan 28, 2019.

  1. Robbo9999

    Robbo9999 Ancient Guru

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    I think it'll be next year that the RTX 30xx cards come out, which is when 7nm process is likely to be ready, and that process shrink will give them a good boost in performance, so that's the gen to buy in my opinion.
     
  2. RealNC

    RealNC Ancient Guru

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    Well, to my eyes, the different stages of the second graph map pretty well to the real one :p
     
  3. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    It is year when AMD replaces whole range of GCN by new thing, too.
     
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  4. 13thCaesar

    13thCaesar Member Guru

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    I paid around NZD$1460.00 for my GTX 1080 Ti 2 years ago... I would have been willing to pay up to maximum of 1750-1800$ for an RTX 2070 Ti... But not the 2350$ minimum I'm asked to pay for one...
    So Nvidia, you would have had a guaranteed sale out of me getting 3 possibly 400 hundred bucks more out of my ass, but ohh no, you had to be a bunch of really greedy ***ts and ask for another grand, so I take great
    pleasure in seeing your stocks fall.
     

  5. Clawedge

    Clawedge Ancient Guru

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    ok cool, just making sure, the internet can be a dangerous place! :D
     
  6. BlackZero

    BlackZero Ancient Guru

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    Perhaps it's a conspiracy? :eek:

    On a serious note, we don't know what's happening in other countries.

    However, it could be that the higher prices are part of a strategy linked to lower stock being made available in traditional markets, with the unfortunate effect of demand falling below expectations in other countries.
     
  7. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    & @Denial :
    5 out of 26 variants of RTX 2080Ti are in stock.
    22 out of 37 variants of RTX 2080 are in stock.
    15 out of 32 variants of RTX 2070 are in stock. (7 models missing are from October, 7 models are from Novemeber, 1 from December and 2 from January. Most of missing cards are PALiT, Zotac, Gainward which are not very popular in here. It is more likely than not that they make those cards, but do not ship large volume to Europe.)
    10 out of 18 variants of RTX 2060 are in stock. (All models which are not available are new releases from last 2~3 weeks. Inconclusive for any reasonable theory as card is too new and "paper launch of models".)

    Only interesting part is that Available parts cover whole price spectrum. In case of 2080Ti local prices go from 30,000 Kc to 39,000 Kc. And cheapest available is at those 30,000 Kc and most expensive available comes at 37,600 Kc.
    Same applies to all other cards. One can't say that cheaper variants are sold out while more expensive sit on stock and nobody wants them. (nVidia's claim about poor financial state of customer.)

    I think it is more of a Supply issue, those particular models are not coming. I think that we should ask AIBs: "Hey, what's going on in between you and nVidia."
    = = = =

    Now here is my observation from last year. When mining driven purchases ended, cards became available. But remained at high prices for some time. Then there was price reduction. And cards were still available. Then cards touched MSRP and suddenly cards with lower prices were sold-out. (Saturating demand of those who were willing to pay MSRP.)
    Availability recovered quickly. And it remained for 3 weeks like that.
    Then cards were priced under MSRP. And again cheapest cards were sold-out. And recovery came.

    Now, you can have RX-580 8G for 5,700 Kc (Including 21% tax). And really only unavailable model is one cheapest 4GB variant and most expensive model for 10,500 Kc (Likely discontinued).
    Similar price thing goes for GTX 1060 6G. Only very expensive models are not in stock. (So expensive that one can get 1070/2060 instead.)

    We arguably are poorest country in western Europe. And all I can see from those numbers and past trends is that at given price points demand is saturated. If someone wants to sell more GPUs, they have to deliver better GPUs or lower prices.

    And that current RTX shortages are not demand driven.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2019
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  8. Odarnok

    Odarnok Member

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    Spain: all major online stores have shortage of highly modified 2080ti cards. Physical stores have ridiculous and high prices for previous gen cards.
    The rest of 2080 ti and others rtx cards have stock.
     
  9. ScreamerRSA

    ScreamerRSA Member

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  10. lucidus

    lucidus Ancient Guru

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    I guess RTX on reduced the performance ... of the company ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
     

  11. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    Were all the memes with RTX ON which made us laugh foreshadowing?
     
  12. RealNC

    RealNC Ancient Guru

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    Yeah. Especially this one:

    [​IMG]
     
  13. HWgeek

    HWgeek Master Guru

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    I think it's going to be even harder for NV in the long run since Google/Amazon/Facebook/Tesla already working to develop their own solution and gonna buy less NV hardware, also AMD can give them good competition in the Compute tasks so NV's main income is depended on gaming- but with fail Cards like RTX series- OMG LOL.
     
  14. TheDeeGee

    TheDeeGee Ancient Guru

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    I guess that company car and 5th house has to wait a little.
     
  15. lucidus

    lucidus Ancient Guru

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    It's fine. He can use VR and enjoy his raytraced car and 5th home :p
     

  16. fantaskarsef

    fantaskarsef Ancient Guru

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    Yes... compared to their expectations (3.5?), now running with 2.2 isn't really good performance... something's not right there. And Jensen knows it... but how big is the risk he really gets outed? Next to none I believe...


    The next time Jensen might have to borrow a leather jacked from his niece... :D


    As much as I agree with you it's a matter of magnitude... if all runs smoothely, those up and down swings aren't as volatile as they're right now. But, I have to ask, you seriously push out Goldman Sachs stuff? Like, they're so reliable and never had any issues... :D
    (j/k ofc)


    It's usually pretty obvious... just look at some guys on twitch predicting bitcoin rates a few hours or days ahead... it's definately more geometry and comparison than magic :D


    I think they're trying to see who's got the longer breath... but yes, I think it's great that people do not blindly buy that card... and it was to be expected.



    Which brings me to my verdict below... sorry for the wall of text, I'll hide it in a spoiler for improved reading:


    I don't want to claim being the best or most educated in (global) markets, but all of this clearly shows how wrong they predicted their own sales.
    Sure, like Jensen meant in the statement linked by @stereoman , that their last quater(s) have been troublesome for some reasons:

    Mining bubble. Yes, they tried to cash grab it hard, milking that cow... only that they went in over head and lost. They reported huge earnings and thought it would go on forever, at least into 2020... a classically wrong business decision based on a market that exists because of the crypto money pyramid scheme / bubble. Sorry, but I did not put my money in it personally, so why should I feel sorry for the business analysts at Nvidia who obviously messed up here? No empathy from my side in that regard, they earned this slap to the face themselves.

    Also, the "big data" market and everything it could offer for Nvidia: They're not the only ones wanting a part of that cake... and clearly, there's a lot of people more than capable of competing, from all around the world. I'm not sure if the biggest of them want to grab Nvidia's offerings, amazon for instance, I could imagine them going the opposite way of google's data centers and either going with AMD, or even doing their own designs in the long run. This market is not Nvidia's, as Jensen seems to want people to believe. Same goes for "retail, healthcare, financial, and consumer internet services companies, at least in my humble opinion.

    Self driving cars, that's personally a field I'm not sure they'll earn the big money... Volvo might stay with them, as well as Daymler / Mercedes, but the money's not there, the big money's in Chinese car manufacturers, Volkswagen, Fiat / Chrysler... they sell far more cars, and thus in the future, far more SKUs for self driving cars in their products... who cares about (random number) of Mercedes being sold when Volkswagen sells cars in the numbers a magnitude higher? Partnering with high class car manufacturers is a short to mid term strategy, since those cars can sell more SKUs in the beginning, but in the long run they'll lose since when autonomous driving will become wide spread, the money's to be made in the base, not the tip of the pyramid.

    And finally the gaming market... oh boy... overpriced cards who's features you can't see? Anybody expecting huge sales with 1200$ GPUs is a moron. Sorry, but that this wouldn't sell like the 1080TI before did (as the respective leading model) was pretty clear. Maybe the drop is bigger than expected, okay, but generally speaking, this was a no brainer. Maybe they should have expected that a card costing 50% more won't sell as many numbers, since it also cracked the magical 1000$ mark that previously the Titan held... and they knew how many Titans usually sell. Why not take those numbers for their predictions? I believe they just f'ed it up themselves, it could be a phase of low revenue and sales due to the adoption of a new tech that might earn Nvidia profits later, but right now they should have put down the worst estimates for their sales to minimize the risk... they probably did not do that. Another bad business decision, especially when you're introducing a product that's more than controversial (price vs. performance gain).

    And then China. That China's economical growth did slow down is not news... it's been in the talks since at least Q2 of 2018. Even humble me heard about it! China is not investing it's money into their domestic market as much anymore since they already now can't produce the demands in goods that the growing middle class in China will soon demand, in many fields (e.g. red meat, too). They're investing huge sums outside of China, practically taking over Africa (Chinese comapanies are major partners to governments in 23/40 or so African countries... go figure), and that money does not run into the growth of the consumer market in China. Yes, it's a global, macro-ecnonomic development, which indeed is beyond Nvidia's control, but it is not unforseeable. Another bad business decision on Nvidia's decision making gremium, whoever sits on that table.

    All in all, it just looks like they expected things to be better, and now have to correct their own, exaggerated expectations. And that's the core of a business, do not overexpect markets. AMD does it much, much smarter with their approach to better not have as much inventory but sell it alltogether, customers more waiting on their products than just ordering them right away (like Nvidia's bigger customers, not us). Means for lower chip stocks, thus less risk to have too much. I'm fairly sure AMD wasn't hit as bad as Nvidia by the burst of the mining bubble, for example... I see the fault for most of all the issues with Nvidia themselves.

    So this meme too remains true, only in the sense of "pre"-RTX generations being the left, and RTX generation of cards being the right, and the wallet's Jensen's
    https://pics.me.me/rtx-off-rtx-on-it-really-do-be-like-that-36008651.png
     
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  17. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    @fantaskarsef : Sure I do push that :D It is not theirs anyway. They just put good enough image of cycle which we are waiting for. So I lazily used it.

    And, btw. that Wall of Text of yours... it is correct. :D
     
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  18. H83

    H83 Ancient Guru

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    For those worried about the lack of stock of RTX cards, Portugal has it covered for you guys, plenty of cards for those willing to fork out the money for them...
     
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  19. Stingray

    Stingray Master Guru

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    If SLI was supported better than it is, I would of picked up another 1080. Current one is working just fine, will probably wait anther year if not longer. AMD is also finally piquing my interest again.
     
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  20. Bigbeard1986

    Bigbeard1986 Member Guru

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    Guys...both intel and nvidia are serverly overpriced. Nvidia will keep having sales cut simply due to competition. There are many companies performing better than nvidia in the AI industry, and soon they will get a gaming cutback once intel gets involved.

    AMD has a market cap of 20 billion, and they produce both CPU and GPU. Nvdia market cap is 400% of that, over 80 billion, and Intel is 1000% of that at over 200 billion...there is no way those companies are worth that much when compared to AMD. Now you know what stock to buy. Thank me later.
     

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