Italy lockdown ...how bad is the Coronavirus?

Discussion in 'The Guru's Pub' started by airbud7, Mar 10, 2020.

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  1. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    When you have one positive confirmation per 4.5 tests done, you have much higher chance of having run-away cases.
    In comparison to US who has some 1.5% of population infected and one confirmed positive per 12 tests, you could draw some conclusions.
    Like: If we say that real number of infected in US is twice as big as reported, then chances are that Qatar has ~4 times as many infected than reported.

    And even 4% is rather big number which could overwhelm hospitals as no country had respirators ready for bad cases. I think that even Korea which has like best medical system would have trouble if 4% got sick.

    And then, even people on respirators die a lot. Yes, while Qatar is rich, their population above 65 is rather small. But then they have disproportionately more men than women in population who tend to have higher mortality rate.
    I am pretty sure, that gold coating lungs is not going to save anyone. money and available medical technology is not question here.
    Drastic difference in official outcomes are.

    For example, US would need 11% of its population infected without any new deaths to reach same death rate. (And that's without adjustment for testing or estimation errors for unidentified cases.)

    Luxembourg for example did enough tests to test 2/3rds of their population. And they confirmed 1% of their population as infected. Which could hint situation in other European countries that took similar protective measures at same time.

    UAE did enough tests to confirm 1/2 of their population upon some point in time. And they have 0.6% infection in population.

    Bahrain did similar per capita testing as UAE and found 2.6% of population infected.

    When I look on number of tests per capita and number of positive results per capita, Qatar is between Oman and Brazil.
    There are very few countries in world who did fewer tests per infected person. But I found them: Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras.

    You can make guess on what kind of accuracy that level of testing provides. And that their actual infection through population will be much bigger. (Which makes official death rate even smaller.)

    It does not sound right when even Korea has 2% death rate and they are really advanced, and kept things quite under control.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2020
  2. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    Nope, never heard of him/her. I get most of my information on Vitamin D from reading research papers on VitaminD Wiki and also looking at anecdotal evidence.
     
  3. anticupidon

    anticupidon Ancient Guru

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    Well, take a look at his channel and the info on vitamin D and Covid.
    Seems like you quoted him!
    And that's a good thing!
     
  4. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    Honestly, I'm reluctant to listen to experts because I was burned by them years and years ago when the whole Vitamin D craze took off. Got plenty of bad advice regarding Vitamin D and other supplements. If there's one thing I've learned about Vitamin D over the years, it's that it's extremely complicated. Even the experts don't fully understand the full range of its functions in the body and how it interacts with other nutrients/hormones. Too much Vitamin D can be just as dangerous as not enough, and it can also throw off the balance of other fat soluble vitamins; namely Vitamin K and Vitamin A if not done properly and that can have disastrous effects.....especially in the long term.

    I've known so many people that were told by their doctors to take large amounts of Vitamin D, which actually worsened their health (mostly because they took it without K2 and magnesium) because said doctors had no idea that Vitamin D is just one part of a complex chain of nutrient interactions and dependencies.

    So with that said, I prefer to do my own research. That's not to say that Dr. Campbell doesn't have any worthwhile information. I'm sure he does. But when my own health is at stake, or the health of my wife and children, I always prefer to make my own choices.

    That way if I screw up, I can only blame myself :D
     
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  5. Caesar

    Caesar Maha Guru

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  6. The Laughing Ma

    The Laughing Ma Ancient Guru

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    That's great news.

    We've just hit the two week mark with no new deaths, 260 folk in hospital with the condition and only 2 in ICU and an estimate of some 300 folk with the virus. They finally announced that our schools will return in full, full time starting from 11th August with all children back by the 18th however they held off moving in to Phase 4 (which I am lead to believe is only if the virus is no longer in the community and a potential threat, which makes sense if they are estimating 300 active cases.) We also added people from Luxembourg to the return 14 day quarantine list.
     
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  7. Caesar

    Caesar Maha Guru

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    all my blessings....guru....
    and all depends upon the good governance of a country... but at times it is difficult to control things that are "out of bound"... i mean....civilians need to be responsible and act cautious....
     
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  8. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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  9. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    It is not going to be over any time soon. At this point, it will continue lurking through population in summer time. If one can actually call it "lurking", because once damage dealt is considered, it does not look like "lurking" flu does in summer. And it will appear fully at around flu seasons.

    Considering that some of those countries had previous peek at around 400 new cases a day, they did not really had it out of control 1st time around. Even with precautions, moment it spreads through population due to time, new clusters will be as large as before. But there will be more of them. And then they will form super clusters.
     
  10. Alessio1989

    Alessio1989 Ancient Guru

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  11. ManofGod

    ManofGod Maha Guru

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  12. Alessio1989

    Alessio1989 Ancient Guru

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    In Italy ReiThera will start its vaccine trial soon too. Note that the Italian government made a deal for the Oxford-Irbm vaccine instead..
     
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  13. XP-200

    XP-200 Ancient Guru

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    17 days now with no covid reported deaths here in Scotland, although a few clusters have popped up over the last week just to let everyone know it's still lurking in the background waiting to pounce on the complacent.
     
  14. Brasky

    Brasky Ancient Guru

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    That's good, any positive steps are helpful.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2020
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  15. Alessio1989

    Alessio1989 Ancient Guru

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    Crap, R_t index today at 1.01, and the rest of Europe is getting worse :|

    They should start the 24th of August at Spallanzani Hospital, the ReiThera vaccine is named "GRAd-CoV2".
     
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  16. 386SX

    386SX Maha Guru

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    Finally a good day again.
    Germany bought 250.000.000 masks it doesn't need right now and just finalised a paper to send out those masks for free (worth about 275 million euros!) to countries / states in need.
    I hope this helps other countries a bit ...
     
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  17. Hypernaut

    Hypernaut Member Guru

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    Cases are up hospital admissions are down, as are deaths. Not as deadly as they claim. Isolate the vulnerable and let's get back to normal.
     
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  18. Alessio1989

    Alessio1989 Ancient Guru

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    It's not easy isolate the vulnerable when they are part of your family. Moreover, this crap doesn't hit vulnerable people only.
     
  19. Amaze

    Amaze Ancient Guru

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    Last edited: Aug 19, 2020
  20. Alessio1989

    Alessio1989 Ancient Guru

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    Some people should try by themselves what an ICU recover means.
     
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