Italy lockdown ...how bad is the Coronavirus?

Discussion in 'The Guru's Pub' started by airbud7, Mar 10, 2020.

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  1. The Laughing Ma

    The Laughing Ma Ancient Guru

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    Did you intend to link that report? It's just that you've used a definitive 'indisputable' statement were as the conclusion of that report is actually they 'might' work.

     
  2. Reardan

    Reardan Master Guru

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    • The study provides evidence that states in the US mandating use of face masks in public had a greater decline in daily COVID-19 growth rates after issuing these mandates compared to states that did not issue mandates. These effects are observed conditional on other existing social distancing measures and are independent of the CDC recommendation to wear facial covers issued on April 3.

    • There is a significant decline in daily COVID-19 growth rate after mandating facial covers in public, with the effect increasing over time after signing the order. Specifically, the daily case rate declines by 0.9, 1.1, 1.4, 1.7, and 2.0 percentage-points within 1–5, 6–10, 11–15, and 16–20, and 21+ days after signing, respectively

    • The main model estimates suggest that as many as 230,000–450,000 cases may have been averted due to these mandates by May 22.

    I don't understand. Can you show some research that shows they have no effect, as you claimed? I can't believe you would hinge your entire refutation of a paper clearly showing a reduction in spread after mask orders on one usage of the word might. That's procreating wild; your response is extremely weak.
     
  3. tsunami231

    tsunami231 Ancient Guru

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    yeah I mean it as someone works in area where there bullets flying, aka a bad neighborhood and your told to wear a bullet proof vest , before they get shoot and they say nah the bullet wont harm me. then they get shot they they are wtf it harmed me.

    Same for Mask wear it to prevent infection they say nah i wont get infect. they get infected and are wtf I got infect it real except now they probably gone and got other infected before they found out cause they didnt want to listen. analogy works maybe the explanation of is bad.

    From day one CDC been asking people to just wear the mask EVERYONE and if they did and if the closed thing down for more then time they did, think would be alot better, but no one wanted to listed and now that we have mandatory in "someplaces" we still have people that dont listen case point florida that video i post, and that not the only place we have people like that.


    if some one as C19 they shouldnt be out in public they should be quarantine, then again they goes off assumption they know they have and care enough to quarantine there asses, if they dont care to they probably arnt even wearing masking in public





    And for the people the missed it asymptomatic dont mean you DONT C19 have it just that you dont show symptom, never mind they fact report they went out that 50/50 chance of getting and being asymptomatic or show symptoms, and those are asymptomatic are winding with up lung damage dont know till that happens are just spreading the virus. all the more reason for people to wear the damn mask.

    Reports of this post in thread few pages back, and other places reported similar finding look around you will find the reports

    Number can be skew viewing them as % vs actual numbers 1% of 300m is 3m 1% of 50m is 500k, 3m out of 300m might be 1 % but 3m is alot higher then the 1% of 50m higher % dont mean less infect or less dead just mean higher%


    the usa has more infect and more dead then any other one place, % are missing leading vs they actual number compared to other places when only look at the %
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
  4. The Laughing Ma

    The Laughing Ma Ancient Guru

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    No? You read the article and reached a conclusion that the article does not agree with. I read the article and read the conclusion that face masks might help stop the spread but that is as long as everyone continues to follow the already established guidelines. That they are an addition to what is already in place. The issue however is that many people are not following these guidelines and are almost treating masks like a magic bullet so they no longer have to follow the other guidelines. If wearing a mask means people are no longer washing their hands, social distancing and are now having to touch their face more, without cleaning their hands first, to adjust and fit, remove and refit a mask and in turn are not maintaining or disposing of masks correctly then masks are effectively useless which is the point I was trying to make and perhaps failed to make.

    I am suspect I should have used the word worthless rather than useless as their worth is diminished by not following the other rules.

    Not that it matters in the end here in Scotland our mandate allows the use of face covering masks or shields. So I will continue to use a face shield rather than a mask as it allows me to actually do my work without having to constantly mess around adjusting and refitting it.

    Well no it doesn't work because a bullet proof vest stops YOU from being killed by a bullet. If a face mask stopped YOU from being infected then the analogy would work but it is widely accepted that face masks are being mandated to prevent someone who has the virus and doesn't know or is in early stages of the virus from infecting others. Ergo they are wearing the bullet proof vest to stop someone else from being shot.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
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  5. Reardan

    Reardan Master Guru

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    So we'll be clear that you offered nothing about your claim and are still hinging your criticism on their usage of the word might, despite the researchers providing data in the same paper that it clearly does help. Got it.
     
  6. tsunami231

    tsunami231 Ancient Guru

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    analogy work it just do not get it. the vest dont save you as you can still die or get really harmed from bullet, only diffrence is that only gona effect that PERSON health, the person not wearing the mask is not only risking them selves but OTHERS.

    Mask dont stop your from getting infected but drop the likely hood of it, just like the vest dont stop you from dying but does drop likely hood of it being fatal, in both case it can still happen.

    With all i seen I seen around my area is that half the people arnt wearing masking other half are, some arnt wearing it right. then we have we have business that mandate the mask for the employes, but it not mandated for people entering businesses, my local grocery story has mandated for there employees but not for people entering store.... then we have place like in florida where they refuse to waering.

    Mandatory mean mandatory not selective.
     
  7. The Laughing Ma

    The Laughing Ma Ancient Guru

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    Masks don't protect the wearer... at all. They have to be a very specific type of mask otherwise all they do is stop the wearer from infecting others. a bullet proof vest protects the wearer it does not protect anyone else.

    Yup no doubt I've reached the wrong conclusions based on my own observations since face coverings became mandated however you've reached a conclusion that even the article YOU linked doesn't agree with. 'Might help' and 'Masks work. This is indisputable at this point' are not even vaguely in the same ball park.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
  8. Reardan

    Reardan Master Guru

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    https://pws.byu.edu/covid-19-and-masks

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

    https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376

    https://komonews.com/news/consumer/...ng-a-mask-to-help-stop-the-spread-of-covid-19

    https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0016018

    https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1

    I told you previously your response is insufficient and you still haven't sourced the claim which you keep repeating that cloth masks are "worthless." Masks work. This is indisputable. Do better.
     
  9. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    This particular model from the Imperial College of London in March projected 2.2 million dead in the U.S, and was instrumental in getting not just the U.S, but several other nations to go into strict lockdowns.

    That's the problem, we don't know how many people have the disease but are unaware of it. But it's likely FAR more than the official infection rate based on antibody studies which found an infection rate almost 100 times higher than the official case number in a California county and the fact that almost half of those tested are asymptomatic.

    I agree that Math doesn't lie, but the data that Scientists are working with is imperfect and flawed, hence the flawed and inaccurate Math models.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
  10. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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  11. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    I think it's more complicated than just "Masks work." The type of mask has a lot to do with it, and also how frequently the mask is washed or replaced. Where I live in Texas, I see a lot of people walking around with homemade cloth masks or surgical masks that can stop only around 20-30% of the particulates. The N95 mask was shown to be the most effective, but they are currently very hard to get, plus they also make breathing MUCH more difficult due to a more effective seal.

    In fact, several people have died in China from wearing N95 type masks while doing strenuous activity because of how it affects respiratory rate efficiency.
     
  12. tsunami231

    tsunami231 Ancient Guru

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    what exactly are you smoking to make you think mask dont help toprotect people? there proof all over that mask reduce the risk, when use proper? you saying you right and doctor and cdc are wrong? please. when worn and used proper mask the mask HELP. you arugeing that they DONT if there wrong mask and they do if they are the right mask.

    I saying they ment to help the individual and other around them, when they the right mask and properly worn.. either way in both case they ment to help, one just help the individual and other less the the other, a mask worn regardless to it type is better then NONE, just like bullet vest it better then NONE the fact the one or the other is ment for individual and the other is ment for individual and everyone else dont come into play some protection it better then none plain and simple.

    this why i think people are stupid. and why I avoid people
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
  13. The Laughing Ma

    The Laughing Ma Ancient Guru

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    Still ignoring exactly what I said


    See that bit in bold, the bit that adds a context to my OPINION that masks are useless, the bit I've restated every time I've been talking about it as the reason why in my OPINION face masks are useless, that bit that YOU keep ignoring time and again.

    Tell you what I'll do better at reaching the same wrong conclusions as you if you do better at reading. Okay?

    Seems some wires have been crossed here what masks exactly are YOU talking about? Are you talking about proper surgical grade N95 rated masks that DO protect the wearer? If that's the case then yeah your analogy with the vest works. I am talking about the face covers, the bandanas, the dust masks, the cheap one use throw away paper masks basically the stuff I see 99% of the time here in Scotland being used. The sort of mask that offers no protection to the wearer.
     
  14. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    Your article about failed projection says:
    "The Imperial College researchers ran one such model they had used in prior research and forecast a number of potential outcomes, including that, by October, more than 500,000 people in Great Britain and 2 million people in the U.S. would die as a result of COVID-19."
    (Such sentence speaks miles about person having prejudice. 1st he declared that models already failed while October was 5 months away. Then he marks them as cause for lockdowns. Projections over time have usually 3 lines. Min/Max/Mean. In exponential growth cases like initial virus spread they can swing wildly and create order of magnitudes differences between Min/Max within months. And moment base parameters change, projections change. Wearing Masks and Social distancing did drastically change base parameters.)
    Antibody tests are not working, they are inaccurate even today from principle. Because there is no specific COVID-19 antibody. You can test positive after having seasonal flu. And tests tell it attached paper because test check for presence of general types of antibodies which body produces depending on nature of threat it fights off.
    Long term models are flawed by default when they do not include seasonality of diseases. But they had no data about COVID-19 and its seasonality and data are still not fully available.
    Yet, they are less flawed that use of micro-county-data in global pandemic for other reason than comparative snapshot of entire population of given county for iterative recheck 1, 2, 3, 4, ... months later.
    Would you pick those Religious followers in Korea as sample, you would likely declared entire Korea as heavily infected. (But there, they are at least infected.)

    I tell you this: In November, you may be dancing around with: "I told you nothing is happening." Or you will be shivering in fear as you realize what's going on and how severe it is.
    Code:
    TIME        2019 Baseline    2020minus2019    COV-19 deaths
    2019W01           13344           -666           0
    2019W02           14073           -882           0
    2019W03           14535           -1263           0
    2019W04           14523           -1290           0
    2019W05           14938           -1839           0
    2019W06           14376           -1586           0
    2019W07           14248           -1403           2
    2019W08           13903           -1443           27
    2019W09           13843           -923           204
    2019W10           13116           812           1208
    2019W11           12598           4784           3384
    2019W12           11901           9038           5198
    2019W13           11780           10496           5339
    2019W14           12045           7405           4106
    2019W15           11489           6080           3759
    2019W16           11557           3856           3157
    2019W17           11255           2242           2326
    2019W18           10931           1185           1685
    2019W19           11118           391           1368
    2019W20           10992           -194           972
    2019W21           11038           -847           605
    2019W22           10776           -1178           506
    
    Here you have reality of what's being reported in what way. I hope you can understand what that means on other side of spectrum. Data are for Italy from Eurostat. (Negative numbers in 2020minus2019 mean that in given week, fewer people died in 2020 than in 2019.)

    You can do same for US, if you wish to have some insight.
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2020
  15. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    You asked me for the model, and I gave it to you. There were others, but that was the most extreme one if I recall.

    Lets get a few things clear. Covid-19 is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Also the human body does make SPECIFIC antibodies for this particular virus.

    This is totally incorrect. The seasonal flu is caused by the influenza virus, which is a totally different type of virus.

    I don't trust the numbers coming from other countries. The U.S is testing hundreds of thousands of people per day, much more than any other country. As I said before, about half of all the infection cases are asymptomatic. There are millions of people in the U.S and in other countries that have the virus and will never get tested because they don't have any symptoms.
     

  16. gerardfraser

    gerardfraser Ancient Guru

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    These are only USA numbers.

    Some facts,some of you people are procreating nuts,why do you not care about these numbers.
    2018 numbers below
    2017 numbers
    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929#heart-disease


    1. Heart disease
    2018 incidence: 655,381
    Rate: 163.6 per 100,000 US standard population
    Percentage of total deaths: 23.1%

    Heart disease—most commonly caused by coronary artery and valvular diseases—is the #1 killer in the United States. It accounted for almost one-fourth of all registered deaths. The death rate from heart disease, however, fell by 0.8%, from 165.0 per 100,000 in 2017 to 163.6 in 2018.

    2. Cancer
    2018 incidence: 599,274
    Rate: 149.1 per 100,000 US standard population
    Percentage of total deaths: 21.1%

    Although the death rate from cancer among Americans fell from 152.5 per 100,000 in 2017 to 149.1 in 2018, cancer is still the #2 killer in the United States; it’s responsible for 21.1% of all deaths.

    3. Accidents/unintentional injuries
    2018 incidence: 167,127
    Rate: 48.0 per 100,000 US standard population
    Percentage of total deaths: 5.9%

    The number of deaths from unintentional injuries include those from car accidents, falls, and—importantly—drug overdoses. The death rate fell by 2.8%—from 49.4 per 100,000 in 2017 to 48.0 in 2018. This was due, in large part, to reductions in the number of deaths from drug overdoses

    4. Chronic lower respiratory diseases
    2018 incidence: 159,486
    Rate: 39.7 per 100,000 US standard population
    Percentage of total deaths: 5.6%

    Deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases—including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, occupational lung disease, and pulmonary hypertension—were down slightly, from 5.7% in 2017 to 5.6% in 2019. There was also a decline in death rate, from 40.9 per 100,000 in 2017 to 39.7 in 2018.

    5. Cerebrovascular diseases
    2018 incidence: 147,810
    Rate: 37.1 per 100,000 US standard population
    Percentage of total deaths: 5.2%
    Cerebrovascular diseases are comprised of stroke, carotid stenosis, vertebral and intracranial stenosis, aneurysm, and vascular malformation. The good news is that the rate of death from these diseases decreased from 37.6 per 100,000 in 2017 to 37.1 in 2018.

    6. Alzheimer disease
    2018 incidence: 122,019
    Rate: 30.5 per 100,000 US standard population
    Percentage of total deaths: 4.3%

    The death rate from Alzheimer disease decreased in 2018, down from 31.0 per 100,000 in 2017. But, the CDC has estimated that by 2060, nearly 3.3% of the entire US population—that’s 14 million people—will have Alzheimer disease or a related dementia.

    7. Diabetes
    2018 incidence: 84,946
    Rate: 21.4 per 100,000 US standard population
    Percentage of total deaths: 3%

    No significant changes occurred between 2017 and 2018 in the number of deaths from diabetes. Considering the rate of overweight and obesity in America, no news is good news in this respect.

    8. Influenza and pneumonia
    2018 incidence: 59,120
    Rate: 14.9 per 100,000 US standard population
    Percentage of total deaths: 2.1%

    Unfortunately, deaths from influenza and pneumonia increased in 2018 and accounted for 3,450 more deaths compared with 2017. The death rate also increased 4.2%—from 14.3 per 100,000 in 2017 to 14.9 in 2018.

    9. Kidney disease
    2018 incidence: 51,386
    Rate: 12.9 per 100,000 US standard population
    Percentage of total death: 1.8%

    Like suicide, the number of deaths from kidney disease did not change significantly from 2017, with a slight decrease in risk from 13.0 per 100,000 in 2017 to 12.9 in 2018.

    10. Suicide
    2018 incidence: 48,344
    Rate: 14.2 per 100,000 US standard population
    Percentage of total deaths: 1.7%

    The number of Americans who died by suicide accounted for 1.7% of the 2.8 million registered deaths. Encouragingly, the incidence of suicide did not increase from 2017. But, its rate increased by 1.4%, up from 14.0 per 100,000 in 2017 to 14.2 in 2018.
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2020
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  17. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    Yet, model is not wrong. Would Entire US remained open w/o masks and social distancing, you would be there.
    You have 5 types of antibodies. Depending on type of invasion your body fights off, your body produces some more. Test checks for combination of 2 which are used in COVID-19 case.
    Test in no way goes and look at particular antibody and if it is encoded to be more efficient in fighting disease which it already knows.
    USA did just 38% more tests per capita than Italy. Russia did 20% more than USA per capita. UK did 35% more testing than USA... USA is 23rd in number of tests per capita.

    And Korea example is not about testing at all. It is about "hot-zones"/clusters. You can pick area where nobody is infected and claim that virus does not exist. Or you can pick area in which dozen of people visited Italy and infected thousands of people and claim calamity.

    And as far as testing goes, USA is now in quite some lag for confirmed cases.

    2min 11 sec

    That's what happens when you need to test magnitude more people as infection rate blows out up.
    (Correction in number of infected is never done retrospectively. They confirm person in 2~3 weeks from now. And will be accounted for on day of confirmation from lab, not at day sample was taken.)
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2020
  18. Ryu5uzaku

    Ryu5uzaku Ancient Guru

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    Seems like Covid is closing in on number 5 spot on that list. Most likely by the end of the year it will be 3rd considering how well the disease is doing over there. It's done bit over double of influenza damage so far.
     
  19. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    You should have included death from medical mistakes on that list as well.
     
  20. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    That's just an assumption on your part. The vast majority of the deaths are in elderly people. Increasing protections for them alone would have halved the amount of deaths.

    The millions of deaths scenario is only possible if we had done absolutely nothing, and by that I mean no medical response whatsoever, ie pretending that the virus does not exist.

    This is totally wrong. You should stop spreading misinformation.

    Antibodies work by targeting specific antigens on a virus and attaching to it via an antigen binding site . Every virus has unique antigen binding sites, so that's how the medical experts are able to determine whether we have specific antibodies for a particular virus.

    Do you honestly think the medical professionals working on this pandemic all over the World are so stupid, that they would waste their time developing antibody tests that couldn't even distinguish between influenza and Covid-19?

    Source
    Source



    [​IMG]


    You need to list links or sources when you say stuff like this, because I don't trust what you're saying.

    The U.S has tested around 50 million people so far, the highest in the entire World.

    That's about 1/6th of our population.

    Korea's strategy is pretty good, but it wouldn't work in the U.S due to our laws. Tracing or tracking software would not be popular in this country.

    When you're testing hundreds of thousands per day, what do you expect?
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2020
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