Italy lockdown ...how bad is the Coronavirus?

Discussion in 'The Guru's Pub' started by airbud7, Mar 10, 2020.

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  1. Reardan

    Reardan Master Guru

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    The lockdowns continued to lift without the appropriate countermeasures in place. It really is that simple. For Florida - May 18 was the beginning of phase one for reopening. June 3 is the beginning of phase 2 reopening. Then this timeline follows

    Almost exactly 2 weeks after phase 2 reopening, they start seeing record cases. There's not much else to it, they made almost no efforts to contain the spread once they started opening, contact tracing is non-existent, testing is slow...and it spread.

    Guidelines also say they should've stayed in lockdown for two weeks after cases began to decrease, which they didn't do. They haven't issued a mask mandate... There's just so many other factors than the protests which, like I said, even if it had an effect, it clearly can be contained as in New York.

    EDIT: I see you edited your previous comment. We see a much better correlation between states with good programs, following guidelines, being strict about reopening having better times than we do about protests. Even if I grant they contributed to some minor spread, I think we have to agree they are not the primary factor here. Different policies about the virus itself seem to have a much better explanatory effect than existence/size of protests.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2020
  2. The Laughing Ma

    The Laughing Ma Ancient Guru

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    Good news? Guess what side of the conspiracy fence you live on

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...fects/ar-BB16Y3fC?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=mailsignout

    Deemed safe through Phase 1 and 2 and produces effective anti-bodies in 90% of recipients with few minor symptoms followed by an announcement that the UK government has bought 90million doses. I am assuming that's based on phase 3 trails going well.

    Very odd the UK made such a hash of just about every stage of this, from locking down way too late, too implementing restrictions in a hap hazard jolly stiff upper lip we'll beat this kind of way, right through becoming the worst on planet for deaths, followed by the easing of restrictions way too early and with too weak a guide line set (face masks are still not mandated in enclosed locations where social distancing is difficult, at least not until the 24th, mind you they are a total waste of time but that's another topic)

    It would be nice if the UK did something right and coming up with an effective vaccine and actually buying enough to not only vaccinate everyone but to do it and more (25million extra doses over.) We must be not to something given that it's been all over the news that the Russians have been trying to steal it.
     
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  3. Alessio1989

    Alessio1989 Ancient Guru

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    Does the Vaccine train T-cells?
     
  4. Mufflore

    Mufflore Ancient Guru

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    Some good news:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...drug-treatment-slashes-ICU-admissions-79.html
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...e-severity-coronavirus-level-common-cold.html
    And just on BBC News,
    An Oxford University trial found their vaccine produces anti bodies for a couple of months and responses have been very positive, as good as could be hoped for.
    But it might not be available this year, a lot more testing to be performed.
    And yes, this does promote neutralising antibodies and T-cells to sweep up any new infected cells, the report specifically stated.
    The UK gov have paid for 100 million doses.

    edit
    This is in addition to that which The Laughing Ma posted above.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2020

  5. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    Looks like the same faulty mathematical projections that created the overhyped media inflation of how dangerous the virus is. According to the faulty math models, we were supposed to have millions dead already.

    The virus is going to do what it wants, and Math so far seems to be practically useless at predicting what it's going to do.

    There's a very strong likelihood that there are tens of millions of infected people more than what the official case count is. Most people that have it, won't even know they have it. Also, I know that here in the U.S there is a financial incentive for hospitals to report Covid-19 incidents whether real or not because they are guaranteed to be paid by the government (elective medical care has been cancelled or put on hold so they're not making any money on that), leading to a potentially overinflated case/death count.

    And the U.S is testing at a much higher rate than any other country right now.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2020
  6. Astyanax

    Astyanax Ancient Guru

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  7. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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  8. Alessio1989

    Alessio1989 Ancient Guru

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  9. Alessio1989

    Alessio1989 Ancient Guru

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    Good, it it works well then Ferrari should ask Oxford for a collaboration too. xD
     
  10. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    Math and models are correct. There are 14M confirmed cases, 600k dead worldwide. Expand it to 300M or 2B cases. Most of the world that has been hit had quite good health care.
     
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  11. tsunami231

    tsunami231 Ancient Guru

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    US went from 2m to 3m inless then 15 days, we will do 3m to 4m in less time, before august is over we ill be over 5m, and wonder what will happen when school open in September, the handling of this in states is gona back fire and is. US is current #1

    Go USA..


    this sums up florida and many other places, people are insane

    This like being told wear a bullet proof vest before getting shot and saying I dont need the vest the bullet wont harm me... wish full thought and delusion wont save you from bullet why would one thing that would save them from virus?

    Italy and many other place are doing great in comparison.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
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  12. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    Wrong. The earlier mathematical models put the death estimates in the millions, or even tens of millions over the span of a few months. The fatality rate is less than .50% when you account for all of the people that have the disease but don't have any symptoms, and in certain age groups, it's practically zero percent.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
  13. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    Case numbers are nowhere near as important as case/fatality or case/hospitalization ratio. Again, there are plenty of people that have the virus but don't have any symptoms or very mild symptoms.

    LOL you're quite clueless. Italy (and many other European nations) has a much higher case fatality ratio than the U.S; 15.3% to 3.7%. I know that you love bashing the U.S, but the numbers don't support your argument.
     
  14. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    I have no idea which models. But mine were pretty close to ground. And real world shot way above them. Here's the problem. 0.5% death rate is possible, but it is far from confirmed. You have to work with what you got. There is math even for that what you do not know.
    (You do not know how many people are sick, but without symptoms.)

    At beginning where tests were few, only people with symptoms were tested. That resulted in pretty high positivity ratio. As test became available in large volume, healthy people around sick got tested. People in hazard situations got tested. Right now, US ratio is 1:12. (8.3% of tests are positive.)
    You have officially 1.12% of population sick. Considering that sample is very large and people who are at risk or don't feel well get tested, US is highly unlikely to have higher infection in population than this 8.3%. In other words, Wildest conspiracy theorists can't deflate death rate under 7.4th fraction of currently known death rate.
    (In reality, if you had 10% of sick population, your test positivity would be like 30% or higher as you would test people who feel sick and those around them. Then there is long term and short term testing which tell you very different information => see below.)

    Therefore taking currently "acceptable", yet stupid (because 1/2 of those people who are used as divisor can still die) estimation of death rate 3.97% and divide it by 7.4, you get to 0.54%. Wildest statistical reduction tells you that death rate is not under 0.54% in US at this time. Yet, you say it is 0.5% or less.

    Math does not lie. Statistics is powerful way of thinking even while heartless.

    If you need some comparison:
    Here in Czech Republic, test positivity is 1 in 44.86 = Very low infection through population. We run ~4000 tests a day with around 140 positive => short term 1 in 28.6 positive => We are getting increased infection rate again.
    Italy test positivity is 1 in 25 as they still run 50k tests a day while they have under 300 new cases a day. Short term 1 in 167 positive => quite under control.
    US right now runs 860k tests a day with 73k positive. which puts you in 1 in 11.78 tests positive and is practically same as US's global positivity ratio. (not getting better)

    If large portion of population already went through illness, tests used would tell and they would be classified as "cured". Instead, you got in one month from ~25k cases a day to 70k+ cases a day, increased testing keeps positivity rate at same point at best. (But this is two edged sword of enough of tests effect.)
     
  15. The Laughing Ma

    The Laughing Ma Ancient Guru

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    Your analogy is wrong, it's like you being told to wear a bullet proof vest because you wearing it will stop someone else from being shot. It's generally accepted that the reason for masks is to stop people from infecting others if they have it and don't know about it. Having had to deal with masks now since returning to work they are worse than useless for protecting the wearer.

    From day one we were told do not touch your face unless you wash your hands first, yet all you see is people constantly adjusting their masks and in turn touching their faces and that's assuming they are even wearing them correctly at all. So you are actually wearing a device that increases your risk of self infecting for the benefit of others. I dumped wearing a mask after the second day as it was utterly unfeasible to use it for more than 30 minutes without then having to break the touch your face rule to adjust or fix it and that's before taking in to account that masks also cause my glasses to mist up. I've opted to use a face shield in stead as they suffer from NONE of the issues that masks introduce and better yet they encourage the basic golden rule 'do not touch your face'
     

  16. Extraordinary

    Extraordinary Ancient Guru

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    I think I'd prefer to be wearing a mask if someone with C19 sneezed in my face
     
  17. rm082e

    rm082e Master Guru

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    Which model? Do you have a link to it?
     
  18. XP-200

    XP-200 Ancient Guru

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    We are doing well in Scotland, thankfully still no deaths but we saw a small spike of 22 at a call center in Motherwell yesterday with rumours the call center was being run in a very lax manner, but apart from that slow and steady seems to have been the right horse to back.
     
  19. The Laughing Ma

    The Laughing Ma Ancient Guru

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    I guess something is better than nothing but if you can be infected through your eyes then I suspect that a mask is going to have little effect, other than maybe reduce the viral load and that's assuming it's an N95 rated mask

    Aye slowly slowly catchy monkey. Need to see what happens as more and more pubs and things like gyms start to reopen open and things start to return to 'normal'. The interesting thing is that according to the UK ONS since England started reducing their lockdown, they seem to be around 3 - 4 weeks ahead of us, their hasn't been a matching increase in cases.
     
  20. Reardan

    Reardan Master Guru

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    Masks work. This is indisputable at this point. You can hand wring about people touching their face and how that makes it worse and pretend like masks are "worse than useless" but the reality is that they prevent spread and not just for the people around you. Masks, even basic surgical masks, filter a significant amount of particles. It's not an immunity, it's not going to guarantee you don't get sick, but it's going to give you a much better chance than not having the mask AND it's going to protect others

    If I could wear a bulletproof vest and prevent other people from getting shot I would wear one everyday. That's the easiest decision of my life. Should be for everyone.
     
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