Italy lockdown ...how bad is the Coronavirus?

Discussion in 'The Guru's Pub' started by airbud7, Mar 10, 2020.

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  1. millibyte

    millibyte Maha Guru

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    Americans aren't good at fighting an invisible enemy at home. Our schtick is bombing defenseless people abroad.
     
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  2. Mufflore

    Mufflore Ancient Guru

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    They could take a cue from Kenny Everett (check youtube :)), English comedian from years back.
    "Round 'em all up, put 'em in a field, and bomb the bastards!"

    ps I'm not being serious!
     
  3. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    This is an outright lie. Show me where I've said anything even remotely like this.

    This is coming from the same guy that said with conviction that scientists and doctors couldn't test for specific antibodies, which is completely false.

    The problem with this statement, is that there are literally dozens of antibody tests, with some being more accurate than others. It's like saying that all Covid-19 VIRAL tests are inherently inaccurate, because many of them are of a low quality and garbage.

    Well despite the fact that a keyboard doctor like yourself is against antibody tests, the U.K gov't has decided to distribute millions of free antibody tests after a trial found that it could be administered with a 98.6% accuracy rate.

    And I'm sure many other countries will do the same as well, because antibody tests are much cheaper and you can get results back in a couple of hours.

    Source

    You obviously don't know anything about cytokine storms. It's the inflammation that kills people and does lasting damage to the body, and the inflammation is caused by an overly aggressive response to the virus. In young people (I'm talking about children), this reaction is going to be much less severe because their immune systems are still developing. Also, a very healthy person with a good immune system will not develop out of control inflammation from the viral infection, which is why so many people don't have any symptoms at all.

    The virus isn't very dangerous in and of itself, but the response that it provokes from the immune system can be extremely destructive and can cause lasting damage. This isn't peculiar to just Covid-19, but any out of control infection.

    Part of my issues with arguing with you is that your English makes it difficult to understand exactly what your exact meaning is. I don't hold this against you as I know that English isn't your first language.

    Secondly, you have a habit of misstating things, as we're about to see below.

    This is a perfect example of you misstating something. The link to that article has ZERO mention of young people being affected by "lasting consequences" more than older people :rolleyes:

    You think I don't read your little links, but I do. Perhaps I should stop though, because your links often have no relation to the point you're making.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2020
  4. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    The immune response is a perfectly valid explanation for why the virus has such varying effects on different people. That's all that comment was meant to be, so stop extrapolating nonsense..
     

  5. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    You might want to add that Vietnam also has one of the youngest populations in the World, especially in contrast to the Western developed countries. This is certainly a huge factor in why they've had such great success with Covid-19. That and their oppressive strategy.

    When you look at the mortality rates for the virus, age is the number one factor.

    Vietnam demographics (6% is over 65)

    Italy demographics (22% over 65)

    United States demographics (16% over 65)

    United Kingdom demographics (18% over 65)
     
  6. The Laughing Ma

    The Laughing Ma Ancient Guru

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    How can you have a mortality rate when the content of the original reference post states that they have suffered 0 deaths?
     
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  7. alanm

    alanm Ancient Guru

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    Criminals wearing masks having hard time (youtube comment):

    "I'm pissed off. Tried to rob three shops today wearing a balaclava, and every time I went to the till she said "very funny, can you get to the back of the que please and wait your turn." Gutted. This country's going down the pan."
     
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  8. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    I wasn't referencing mortality rate. It was the percentage of the population that is above the age of 65. Vietnam has a very small percentage of elderly people compared to Western developed nations, and that factors when it comes to explaining why they haven't had any mortalities.

    It's not the only factor though. They also have very aggressive case tracing, lockdowns and quarantines that would probably not be permissible in Western nations with more rights and checks on government power/abuse.
     
  9. The Laughing Ma

    The Laughing Ma Ancient Guru

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    Yeah just re read your post and saw that I mis read what you had posted.
     
  10. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    Indeed. But it's not like virus does nothing to those younger than 65. 10% of EU and 20% of US dead was younger than 65.

    But lets assume that everyone age <65 is 100% immune. That still leaves some 6 million Vietnamese age 65+ to be decimated by COVID-19. See example of Brazil where 8% <65 translated into 2.5M cases, 90k deaths.
    Higher proportion of younger than 65 might explain proportionally or even exponentially lower infections and deaths. It does not come very far in explaining the case of Vietnam;420 cases/zero deaths.
    Divide by zero, divide by thousand - there are no proportions here to speak of. It's incomparable! Any attempt to analyze this numerically breaks down because Vietnam oppressed the virus into non-existence.

    Fun fact: Vietnam made masks mandatory on the same day the UK introduced daily briefings (16 March).

    Govt abuse and opression - Vietnam style:


    Original video 54M views
    youtube.com/watch?v=BtulL3oArQw

    Meanwhile in the Western hemi/twitto/mind-sphere:
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that the mortality rates in certain nations can only be explained by the percentage of the population that is over 65. It's just a significant factor.

    Brazil is a good counter example, but it also has more than twice the population of Vietnam. Also, Brazil has a large black population which is potentially another big factor.

    It seems that black or dark skinned people in general are more susceptible to the virus, likely due to lower Vitamin D levels.

    The pathology of mass outbreaks is undoubtedly very complex, and there are many factors involved. Age is just one of them, but it is perhaps the most significant of them all.

    Here's another fun fact. Vietnam is also a one party state that is communist lite like China. The Vietnamese government can enact much harsher restrictions on people's liberties compared to developed Western nations.

    It's ironic that freedom and liberty can be at odds with swift containment of something like a pandemic. Look what China did at the onset of the outbreak when it became clear they couldn't sweep it under the rug. That kind of lockdown would be impossible in the U.S, as people would revolt with arms.
     
  12. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    Doesn't work like quite like that. If that was true you'd expect correlation between dark skin and weaker bones, yet opposite seems to be true.
    Same levels of vitamin D–binding protein in blacks correspond with higher levels of bioavailable 25-hydroxyvitamin. With tens of thousands of years of mutations and selection, one would expect nature/evolution to take care of something as basic as that.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2020
  13. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    I'm impressed (don't let it get to your head though). Not many people know that, or maybe you just Googled it.

    As someone that knows quite a lot about this subject, this is my explanation. You're correct that there is no correlation between darker skin and weaker bones. In fact, Caucasian and East Asian women are much more susceptible to osteoporosis than black women.

    The reason is because while black people typically have much lower levels of the stored form of Vitamin D (cholecalciferol), they have higher levels of the active hormonal form (calcitriol), which plays a major factor in increasing calcium deposition in the bones. Perhaps genetically black people require less of the stored form of Vitamin D due to having evolved in a equatorial climate, unlike say someone who's ancestry is from Scandinavia; so their bodies convert cholecalciferol to calcitriol at a faster rate.

    However, black and other dark skinned people still require much longer exposure to UV radiation to make Vitamin D (very fair skinned person can make 10-20,000 iu in approximately 30 minutes under ideal circumstances), and that's problematic, because most people in developed Western nations regardless of race or ethnicity don't spend much time outdoors in the Sun for extended periods of time with minimal clothing unless they're on vacation. And you'd be surprised that even in a country like Brazil that has a equatorial climate, a lot of black people actively try to avoid the Sun because they don't want to be darker than they already are.

    Colorism is rife in the former colonial nations, and lighter skin is almost universally preferred; especially for females. It's ironic that while many dark skinned blacks try to avoid the Sun and even use bleaching products to become lighter, their white counterparts are literally burning themselves to a crisp from Sun bathing for hours.

    I know so many older white women who now have permanently Sun damaged skin from the excessive Sun bathing they did in their teens and twenties, that took years to manifest.
     
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  14. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    "When you break something it may never get fixed naturally."

    - Vitamin C
     
  15. Alessio1989

    Alessio1989 Ancient Guru

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    So how's going in the rest of Europe (not only EU)? I heard some worrisome news about Spain and Germany.. Or even in other part of the worlds of course... I only know that USA and Brazil never exited from the first wave .-.
     

  16. anticupidon

    anticupidon Ancient Guru

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    Here where I live there is a outbreak and people are wearing masks. However, not everyone cover the nose, as it not being part of the respiratory system. So, basically we're screwed, almost begging for a new lockdown/quarantine.

    More to it, people lost their fear and there is a lot of brainwashed people who take the FB and WhatsApp messages as gospel.
    Stupidity and lack of empathy or civic behaviour causes more harm that we realize.

    The outbreak,the patient 0 was someone who never gave a damn about the virus saying that it is man made and a hoax. He changed his tune when his breathing became a challenge.

    Now, he is under intensive care and when he'll be discarded from hospital some lawsuits will wait for him.

    And people are still waiting for the money that government promised to pay to those who lost their job or unemployed.
    Not a good perspective, I might say.
    @Carfax good point on vitamin D. Do you watch Dr. Campbell's channel?
     
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  17. The Laughing Ma

    The Laughing Ma Ancient Guru

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    Here in Scotland we are getting there slowly but surely, although not really sure where there is. We've had a cluster case here in Greater Glasgow and Clyde 22 folk in one day were in the past it has only been 2, 3 or 4. We are however on the 13th day without any deaths and apparently only have two people in ICU.

    UK in general, we have two areas that are on the brink of regional isolated lockdowns Oldham and Blackburn and another which I believe has just exited a local lockdown Leicester. 19 deaths in England today, no idea how many cases but apparently 10 folk coming back from Spain have tested positive so not really shocked to find that the government has placed Spain back on the quarantine list alongside Belgium..

    Same general issues as Anticupidon mentioned. Pointless masks, i.e masks not being worn correctly, constantly fiddled with, all the usual stuff that makes them pretty ineffective. The general idea that I sort of have a mask so I can ignore all the other guides lines, They walk up to me, I step back, they step closer I step back I mean you would think that the face mask the signs the general body language would be enough but no I swear the next person I have to tell to step back is going to get punched. One guy actually tried to hand me HIS phone so I could speak to his boss and looked really offended when I pretty much gave him my full on f*ck off face with a small reminder as to why HIS boss should phone ME directly rather than me taking his phone. The level of stupidity some people demonstrate is beyond amazing.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2020
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  18. alanm

    alanm Ancient Guru

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  19. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    Have you ever wonder why you do not have tons of infectious diseases attacking your eyes? Your own tears are pretty hostile environment to live in.

    Sure, there is chance to get any infection through eyes, or even skin. But, let's be honest. It is primarily respiratory infection. And chances to get infected through eye while being subjected to same volume of virus which would infect you through lungs in tiny fraction. Same way as smearing virus on your skin is very unlikely to cause infection unless skin is damaged.

    It is not like one cell of virus will infect you successfully. It is always function of volume vs resilience of contact tissue against given infection. And that brings us to actual surface of lungs vs eyes and amount of air which moves around those 2 surfaces per minute.
    In 14 days, Brazil will be ugly to look at. While US was objectively worst in terms of daily infections and deaths per capita, Brazil is now no.1 problematic country.

    Then you have countries like Qatar which declared 4% of population as infected without much testing. And has official mortality rate some 0.15% which is 2 orders of magnitude lower than what most countries have. I am not sure if it is about keeping faces or their population had similar virus in past and bodies can respond sooner adequately.
     
  20. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    What do you mean "declared 4%"? They did half a million tests on total population of 2.8M, no?
    As for low death rate, it might have something to do with being literally the richest country in the world.
     
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