Italy lockdown ...how bad is the Coronavirus?

Discussion in 'The Guru's Pub' started by airbud7, Mar 10, 2020.

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  1. jbscotchman

    jbscotchman Ancient Guru

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    I honestly don't know what that means. I've never reported HeavyHemi for anything. Please clarify.
     
  2. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    I would rather have few people sit on bench for a while than support closure if important thread.
    Especially when suggested by someone who made sure to escalate things into bad place.

    People have always option to not click this thread and to not trigger. But thread should stay open for people who actually want/need something from it.

    We are in before big wave as winter comes in. Yet we live in world, where people have on average enough of food to survive few days.
    Our grandparents stored food for several weeks or even months.

    There is no big difference between times where people could end up in situation where there was no food to buy. And now when we may end up in situation when going to buy food will put ourselves and our loved ones into danger of death from infection.

    People today should think more about future as did older generations.
     
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  3. XP-200

    XP-200 Ancient Guru

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    Well up here in Scotland things are slowly coming back to life, and more importantly no more deaths for a whole week so looking good at this point, but fingers continue to be crossed, we are almost at the dock so keep up the good work all and continue to be vigilant as this little bugger needs to be kept a close watch on until we nail with a jag.
     
  4. Alessio1989

    Alessio1989 Ancient Guru

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    Meanwhile Italy blacklisted again Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro.
     

  5. XP-200

    XP-200 Ancient Guru

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    ^^That is not good, what happened, i thought they had it under control.
     
  6. Redemption80

    Redemption80 Ancient Guru

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    Scotland is definitely back to normal, walking to my local shops last night night and it felt like a Saturday night in the city centre. Pavements full of people outside pubs who were smoking and taking group selfies. It was also weird that i walked by a mask free pub, but i had to put on a mask to go into an off sales.

    I've also been confused by some data on the NHS England website.
    I know it won't include care homes and dying at home, but the death figures are really low. Yesterday England had 3 deaths in a hospital, and only 2 of them were tested. Total deaths for England was only 19 over the last 2 and a half weeks.

    Capture.JPG

    Edit: Not as confused, just noticed today's announcement was also. There seems to be a delay to hospital deaths being reported. Yesterday's 22 included deaths from April and May.
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2020
  7. Kaleid

    Kaleid Ancient Guru

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    No it isn't, because with being black the person is likely to be more poor, use public transports and can't simply escape NY like the rich did during the worst period.

    Depends on how it is "coded", some viruses are so aggressive that they end up killing the host in too large numbers and thus the virus kills itself. That's the thing, you don't quite know the nature of a virus before it is studied. Therefore as Trumps said that it would vanish by April was quite a foolish thing to say. This also chances how people behave, do they take this seriously. A politician that directly influences millions of people.

    (care about US politics)
    You should, likely US politicians pressure your government to do certain things which might not be in favor of the people in your country.

    (Politics out of science)
    YOU CAN'T. Nobody can. If masks become mandated a lot of the US population will say that this is for instance communism.
    How much financing should these diseases receive? Does the federal government pay for everyone's treatment.
    Do people object to this on religious reasons?
    You can't extract politics out of science, you simply cannot.
    If I write in text with supportive evidence there will be some people who will think that all the world's scientists are part of some global conspiracy to...I don't know, turn the world to socialism or some other dumb crap.
    What's the role of the market? Do only those with money get the masks or vaccine when it is out? Or does the world actually work together to eradicate diseases?

    "Science does simply not give a singular damn about all the outrage and feelings we're dealing in the real world."
    Science is a method, a way of work as you should know. But outrage and feelings can lead into action and that can lead to better science. Don't neglect it, don't put for instance religious beliefs as something more important than actual scientific work. And then we can come into the ethics of science, that will not only be reasoned through rationally, it will involve lots of feelings, zeitgeists etc..

    "Each of the attempts to inject politics in science is insanely noxious and degrades the public's trust in authorities."
    A politician must react to a problem that has a scientific solution and understanding. As already stated, public financing is also behind a lot of research, and schools are very important to shape public understanding in scientific work.
    Newspapers also make a decision by not hiring anyone with scientific competence but would rather peddle for instance astrology to the masses.
    Carl Sagan's book "The Demon Haunted World" goes deeply into how important the job of a politician is to make a society scientifically literate and also with it more healthy.

    Secular religion? What the hell is that?

    (US centric stuff)
    Not possible. If USA purchases all the medicine which has actually been demonstrated to work on the virus it will change not only "my" country but yours too.
    Also, ideas tend to be copied from USA on a regular basis, with some delay. It is also the only superpower in the world currently and I won't go much into it, but it has many militaristic aims which involve US control of pretty much everything (just keywords: Full Spectrum Dominance, PNAC)

    "You have to realize the Internet is a global community with diverse problems."
    Well duh, it used to be a way for lots of people to expose their own ideas as well as others quite freely. This has changed a lot since 9/11.
    As you said Romania, lots of people from that country come to various other European countries to send beggars, this is something that is discussed at least where I live from time to time.

    "country's dirty clothes publicly here and moan about all the ugly stuff"
    Why not, but this might not have reach to a lot of people on this specific website, but I hope there are places where you can quite freely talk about (almost) anything related to your country.

    "Yet for some reason, we get US politics galore, which are the most toxic of the bunch and infects almost anything."
    Sure it does. USA is entertaining as hell, and has the money to do things which massively change the world, be it passively or actively. 9/11, the "war on terror", 2008 economic crash, the latter which lead to Brexit and the birth of rightwing nationalism in Europe...which yet again can sort of infect the thoughts of others.
    This will also be more important later on when China starts to flex its muscles more. Right now it is purchasing quite a bit of influence, so it's using a form of soft power but you will have to discuss that country too.

    "Imagine having US-inspired BLM protests (or anti-lockdown protests, those started in the US too) in countries that have basically nothing to do with all this."
    This is not quite true. Where did you country stand on say Apartheid South Africa? What does it do today? How does it treat minorities? How does it deal with the virus? Especially human rights groups are good to read as they tend to drag everyone in the mud, as they should.
    As said, ideas also spread, people watch what happens in country X and do tend to copy things. It can be used for bad, it can be used for good, it depends on what the people let themselves be influenced by.
    My own country has had a small part in slavery, and also forced sterlizations which did not target minorities but this is true in some other countries. Perhaps it's time to take a good honest look at the country's history? Perhaps there are things which can actually be improved.
    Comparing and contrasting is an useful too to use too.

    ""It HAS to be kept out"
    This is absolutely impossible. As said people's political beliefs alone shape what any country does when it comes to science. Politics is absolutely involved in regulation, supporting of various scientific work.
    There are political decisions behind putting 1/5 of all world's research into weapons meant to kill other human beings.
    Two scrapped nuclear deals.. which will put more money into new weapons which the world does not need.
    Instead we should listen to the likes of Gates (and others such as Obama) who warned about coming pandemics.

    I'll globalize the pandemic further. Do we only let those who have money get the vaccine or do we collectively work in curing this as well as other diseases? To me the answer is simply, the latter of course. But in order for this to happen some of us have to work with making more people agreeing with this viewpoint. It certainly cannot be left up to the markets of the world. Since the world has turned to neoliberalism for decades now, the political influence on things like this virus are absolutely gigantic.

    Why is for instance that viruses such as these are not named after the place where we think it came into existence from? There are official guidelines to follow. If we stupidly agree with the president of USA and keep calling it say Kung-Flu we will see that Asian people will be blamed for something which might only have the origin of person badly cooking a bat.
    Again, you can try yell as much as you want to separate politics from science but it's an utterly impossible task.
     
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  8. toyo

    toyo Master Guru

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    So deport criminals then. I am not even gonna cry you stereotyped my country like most people moan when it happens, fully ignoring the endless drain of intellectuals from where I live - just take a look at how many medics we lost to the UK and other Western nations because people are damn greedy. So stereotype away.
    But I will ask of you in the West to apply law&order impartially, control your borders, stop encouraging economic migration and make sure your own populace has where to work for a good wage, and more importantly, punish migrants that break the law to its full extent without worrying about bigotry and other woke stuff.
    Deport the beggars. Romanian citizens are the responsibility of the Romanian state, and those that act like savages overseas should be harshly penalized and punished. Each and every migrant is an unwilling diplomatic representative to a foreign country, as it's obvious from your post. If they can't behave, they have to go back. Integration and assimilation should not be debatable.
     
  9. HeavyHemi

    HeavyHemi Ancient Guru

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    BTW, I disputed your claims that everyone is infected and affected equally by Covid19 by posting a link to a massive database of facts proving you are factually wrong. I'm sure you'll just make another nebulous argument of your opinions.
     
  10. HeavyHemi

    HeavyHemi Ancient Guru

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    America Drank Away Its Children’s Future As the school year looms, the pandemic is still raging.

    None of this had to happen. Other countries stuck with their lockdowns long enough to reduce infections to rates much lower than those prevailing here; Covid-19 death rates per capita in the European Union are only a 10th those in the United States — and falling — while ours are rising fast. As a result, they’re in a position to reopen schools fairly safely.

    And the experience of the Northeast, the first major epicenter of the U.S. pandemic, shows that we could have achieved something similar here. Death rates are way down, although still higher than in Europe; on Saturday, for the first time since March, New York City reported zero Covid-19 deaths.

    Would a longer lockdown have been economically sustainable? Yes.

    It’s true that strong social distancing requirements led to high unemployment and hurt many businesses. But even America, with its ramshackle social safety net, was able to provide enough disaster relief — don’t call it stimulus! — to protect most of its citizens from severe hardship.

    Thanks largely to expanded unemployment benefits, poverty didn’t soar during the lockdown. By some measures it may even have gone down.

    True, there were holes in that safety net, and many people did suffer. But we could have patched those holes. Yes, emergency relief costs a lot of money, but we can afford it: The federal government has been borrowing huge sums, but interest rates have remained near historical lows.

    Put it this way: At its most severe, the lockdown seems to have reduced G.D.P. by a little over 10 percent. During World War II, America spent more than 30 percent of G.D.P. on defense, for more than three years. Why couldn’t we absorb a much smaller cost for a few months?

    Paul Krugman

    Because as Americans, we have decided to put everything on a credit card for short term pleasure at the expense of long term safety.
     
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  11. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
    If anyone is interested in knowing effect of lockdown, wearing the masks and then taking them down while opening:
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/
    (Active cases.)
    And US shows what riots do to infection rate:
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    (New cases per day. Someone probably did not like that things were getting under control.)
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2020
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  12. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    What a bunch of B.S. This is what happens when you trust the Toilet Paper Times for accurate reporting.:rolleyes: The Covid-19 death rate per capita for the US is lower than many countries, currently at 42.83 deaths per 100,000, which puts us at #10 and behind France, Sweden, Italy, Spain and Belgium which are all E.U countries last time I checked. And the U.K is in the #3 spot behind Belgium.

    As for case/fatality ratio, the U.S is even further down the list is currently at 3.8%, or 50th in the World. Compare this to the U.K at 15.3%, Italy at 14.3%, France at 14.2% and Spain at 10.9%..

    John Hopkins University coronavirus statistics

    Perhaps you should do your own research rather than trust what is in the corrupt news media that's desperately trying to make the situation appear as worse as possible due to being in an election year, although I know that meshes with your leftist mindset.
     
  13. tsunami231

    tsunami231 Ancient Guru

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    eh was this not closed few days ago by hilbert?
     
  14. Mufflore

    Mufflore Ancient Guru

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    I saw that too, I expect to be shot now.
    Run dude!



    ps
    I'm glad its been allowed to continue, so much useful info.
    Hopefully the idiot nuke has been turned on.
     
  15. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    Maybe he changed his mind? The worldwide pandemic is affecting ALL of us no matter where we come from, so it's useful to have intelligent, fact based discussion about it on the forum.
     
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  16. Hilbert Hagedoorn

    Hilbert Hagedoorn Don Vito Corleone Staff Member

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    Yes, the two people that changed this thread into clusterfrack of agony, however, have been removed from the forums. So the thread can remain open as long as it is civil and non-political.
     
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  17. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    Well, USA is 7th if we exclude "countries" with population of smaller city.

    What you can do is to take your known case/fatality ratio and use it to approximate your position with current trend of infection rate.
    USA currently has additional 0.02266% of population confirmed with infection per day. If it stays there, you'll have 1% of population infected in 44 days. (3.31M new cases.)

    *now fix your way of approaching data before we continue:
    141,118 Dead; 1,679,633 recovered; 1,874,274 active
    This equals to 3.97% dead from total cases (including people that may still die) and 8.4% if we use only closed cases. Actual true value will be somewhere in between. Let's use 5% for now even while accurate math used for ongoing pandemics says more.

    Projection above would expect minimum of 306,600 dead people in 44 days. (While ignoring current active cases.)
    Upper projection would be 400,000 dead in 44 days. So, we are looking at 900~1200 dead per million in 44 days.

    Except that's projection based on best case scenario where infection rate stays at around 75k per day. Before riots started, USA had under 25k new cases per day and trend does not show sign of stopping for now.

    If trend continues as is now, in 44 days it will not be additional 1% of population infected. It would be 4.91M new cases ~= 1.48%.
    Projection above would expect minimum of 386,600 dead people in 44 days. (While ignoring current active cases.)
    Upper projection would be 480,000 dead in 44 days. So, we are looking at 1160~1450 dead per million in 44 days.
     
  18. Reardan

    Reardan Master Guru

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    Fox, you're reasonable, but I keep seeing you seeming to allude to the idea that the protests increased infection rates. I want to make sure we're clear that there's currently no proof of that.

    https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

    If riots had been a large or primary driver of this recent upswing, we would see some kind of correlation with intensity/existence of the protest and transmission rate. New York City for instance, had massive protests, but they have been able to maintain a low level of spread. We don't see any spike in New York associated with the protests which we would have to see SOMETHING if they'd significantly affected spread. Further, areas with relatively few and small protests, Arizona, Florida, etc are some of the hardest hit places right now. I'll also note, anecdotally, that at the protests I was at, masks were being announced to be worn every 10 minutes, and masks were available for free from a number of people. It also obviously took place outside.
     
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  19. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    People changed their behavior one way or another to go from steady state into one that's growing for a month. That means change did happen over a month ago.

    There may be other related trigger, but all countries that had it under control and then took down masks and returned to "normal" seen quick spike in following weeks.

    So, do you have in mind any other factor that suddenly affects behavior of USA's population at large scale that could lead to higher infection rate.
    (Outside of virus mutation.)

    Paper says that tracking data suggest general population remained at home while rioters went to streets.
    So, those at home had lower infection rate and those running and screaming had higher infection rate. There is no reason to think otherwise.
    Net result may not be immediately bad, but it is still bad because BLM took actions leading to spreading of virus among themselves. (They were aware of increased risk and did not care enough to protest in other than physical way. => Hypocrisy.)
    Then part of population that remained home still had to go out shopping.

    Then there is factor that officially 2.2% of NY population has been infected, that's biggest percentage in USA and twice as high as average in USA.
    Current infection rate is reduced by population that already had it. And it looks small in comparison to early reports when large scale testing became available.

    Afterwards there was study which did ask people who went to be tested if they were in protests (instead of using cellphone data). Lower percentage of people who pretested were confirmed sick than those who did not. (Every false statement did put extra infection to non-protesters and took one from protesters.)
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2020
  20. jbmcmillan

    jbmcmillan Ancient Guru

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    Many states relaxed restrictions and as people become more blasé about this it will continue to rise.
     
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