Italy lockdown ...how bad is the Coronavirus?

Discussion in 'The Guru's Pub' started by airbud7, Mar 10, 2020.

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  1. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    You should have included death from medical mistakes on that list as well.
     
  2. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    That's just an assumption on your part. The vast majority of the deaths are in elderly people. Increasing protections for them alone would have halved the amount of deaths.

    The millions of deaths scenario is only possible if we had done absolutely nothing, and by that I mean no medical response whatsoever, ie pretending that the virus does not exist.

    This is totally wrong. You should stop spreading misinformation.

    Antibodies work by targeting specific antigens on a virus and attaching to it via an antigen binding site . Every virus has unique antigen binding sites, so that's how the medical experts are able to determine whether we have specific antibodies for a particular virus.

    Do you honestly think the medical professionals working on this pandemic all over the World are so stupid, that they would waste their time developing antibody tests that couldn't even distinguish between influenza and Covid-19?

    Source
    Source



    [​IMG]


    You need to list links or sources when you say stuff like this, because I don't trust what you're saying.

    The U.S has tested around 50 million people so far, the highest in the entire World.

    That's about 1/6th of our population.

    Korea's strategy is pretty good, but it wouldn't work in the U.S due to our laws. Tracing or tracking software would not be popular in this country.

    When you're testing hundreds of thousands per day, what do you expect?
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2020
  3. The Laughing Ma

    The Laughing Ma Ancient Guru

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    Perhaps I missed it somewhere but what was the point you were trying to make by posting those numbers?
     
  4. rm082e

    rm082e Master Guru

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    Who said we don't? We have medications, surgeries and medical treatments for most of those things you listed, and enormous amounts of research are done each year on them. We have suicide hotlines and warning labels on damn near everything to prevent accidents. We've imposed heavy taxes on tobacco products to curb cancer. People are constantly working to make the world more safe.
     
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  5. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    Few more numbers since we're there.
    Rates for "deaths of despair" = suicide + drugs + alcohol for non-college whites now comparable with cancer rates:
    ~150 per 100,000 population.

    COVID-19 (so far) < 50 per 100,000

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    Few more numbers. EU/US death age distribution.
    No comment, other than to say it's so easy to weaponize numbers in any direction it suits the narrative.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Redemption80

    Redemption80 Ancient Guru

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    Glad to see this was unlocked.

    I'm also of the opinion that masks increase the risks, here in Scotland.

    Social distancing went out the window the day masks were mandatory, the majority don't wear them correctly and are constantly touching their nose then touching door handles, stock etc..
    People are constantly taking them down to speak or get a breather and it's usually a big blowy one breath.

    I'm a serial face toucher, so I'm probably one of the worst offenders.

    Cases and deaths are low here though, even the death certificate ones are only 6 for the last week.
     
  8. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    In Italy, it is double of yearly average, but actual spike of total deaths in weeks where covid caused its spike was twice as high as reported covid numbers. This means covid related deaths were reported only in around 50% of cases.
    => Already 4 times as many dead people than flu does in entire year.
     
  9. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    Ad antibody test: https://www.cochrane.org/CD013652/I...body-tests-detection-infection-covid-19-virus

    Ad data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

    Ad Korea: You still do not get meaning of what I wrote. Study you linked targeted California, Santa Clara!!! From 1st 20 cases in US, California had 10. And from that Santa Clara 3.
    If you measure hot zone. And then declare that infection rate must be 100 times higher than reported in other places because they do not show same rates, you are doing it wrong.
    (Hence note of Korea's religious group that became cluster.)
     
  10. Alessio1989

    Alessio1989 Ancient Guru

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    From tomorrow in Italy mandatory quarantine (probably about 2 weeks) and swabs from who are coming from Romania and Bulgaria or who were in those countries in the last two 14 days. Meanwhile in the province near mine about over 64 people of an Italian delivery company branch were tested positive. The same company had a similar issue less than a month ago in another branch near Bologna.. Fùck ç__ç The only good thing is they are all increasing again the daily swabs...
     
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  11. XP-200

    XP-200 Ancient Guru

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    Scary how it seems to almost double with every 10 year plus age gap, and just a horrible toll taken by those of 64 years and upwards, just horrible.
     
  12. toyo

    toyo Master Guru

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    Cases exploded after we lifted the restrictions in Romania. The hospital in my city is full and the military hospital tents we've set up on sports fields, also full. A month ago I would read a COVID suspect CT every 2-3 days. Last week I've had probably 50. It only takes a month or so of relaxation and we've went from 150 cases/day to 1200, more than double the previous April "peak".
    More interestingly, the main reason we're in this situation is because the opposition party decided to be reactionary at whatever the liberal government does, so we've got the lockdown and all medical measures contested at the constitutional court, and deemed unconstitutional. New laws had to be drafted and the state was left powerless to isolate the infected, resulting in people leaving hospitals infected, unbelievable stuff. Partially fixed now, we've put a few cities/villages in lockdown again, just like you've done with Codogno early on.
    There will be a month of hell in Romania now as we're probably on our way to have a similar crisis as Italy experienced, but with a state with its hands tied behind its back. I have to say, this pandemic crystallized my opinion that my people need to be ruled by a strong hand, or they're simply too stupid for their own good. Near exemplary dealing with the initial stage, absolute disaster after the restrictions lifted. Imported denialism from abroad too, even one of my colleagues that doesn't deal directly with COVID patients told me he doesn't "believe" in it - a medic lmao.
     
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  13. anticupidon

    anticupidon Ancient Guru

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    Seems that denial is worse that the virus itself.
     
  14. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    I don't see why you're bothering to argue with me on this. Are antibody tests foolproof? No. Are regular Covid-19 tests foolproof? No.

    There's been plenty of false positives and false negatives I'm sure. With time and research, the accuracy of the tests will increase.

    But your main assertion earlier that antibody tests were inherently unreliable is of course, completely wrong.

    I can tell you never even read that link, because it said nothing about "1st 20 cases in the U.S." :rolleyes:

    Besides, there was another antibody study in New York back in April that found similar results.

    When you consider the high cases of infections in the U.S and other countries, it becomes patently obvious that the aggregate amount of infections is much higher than the official amount.
     
  15. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    I don't think anyone is in denial. The question is, are the methods we are currently using against the virus effective, and also whether the virus is dangerous enough to warrant the vast changes to our social behavior and the self inflicted harm to our economies (many businesses will never come back).

    The answers to both of those questions in my opinion is no.

    If we had protected our elderly at the beginning of this clusterf*ck, that alone would have dramatically decreased the amount of deaths. The virus is very dangerous to the elderly and people with underlying conditions, but for everyone else, it's no more dangerous than the common flu; or even less dangerous in some cases.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2020

  16. Mufflore

    Mufflore Ancient Guru

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    You might want to take another look
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...fering-symptoms-virus-MONTHS-left-bodies.html
     
  17. Carfax

    Carfax Ancient Guru

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    I've heard about this before. When I read about cases like that, the first thing that comes to my mind is, something is wrong with their immune system.

    You have to wonder why approximately half of all people that get the virus, have no symptoms whatsoever, while others have very mild symptoms or are hospitalized in an ICU on a ventilator. The answer is the individual's immune system. Some people's immune systems are more efficient and effective than others at clearing the virus with minimal or no noticeable inflammation. A weak immune system will struggle to suppress and clear the virus and increase inflammation. That's what I think causes prolonged cases like this.

    It also explains why elderly people are particularly susceptible to Covid-19, as elderly people in general have much weaker immune systems. The very young on the other hand have immune systems that are still developing, and so the immune response isn't nearly as violent as in an adult and is why the fatality rate in the young is extremely low.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2020
  18. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    All you write around is: Let them die or suffer. Maybe it is time for you to take step back. Most of us here have no desire to see wide spread infection and consequences of it.

    If you have need to misinterpret data or ignore them while lying, make your thread somewhere else.

    You have no idea about antibody test and meaning of studies around it. When it tells you that tests were successfully detecting infection in 30% of infected in 7 days after 1st symptoms, it means that 70% of them did not produce detectable amount of antibodies.
    Success rate 70% at 2 weeks mark and 90% at 3 weeks mark (with same tests) tells you the antibody story together with way immunity system reacts.

    In a awful lot of people it takes weeks before immune system starts to react to this. And at that point it needs stronger response which can make things worse.
    What you call weak immune system struggle and damage to lungs is exact opposite of what doctors say. In reality, this virus is unknown to our bodies and problem is in detection time. You even contradict yourself in this within one post.
    Young people have still better regenerative potential, not immune systems. Immune systems of older people is more experienced, but their bodies are naturally weakened by aging.

    As for links you intentionally ignored, because they did not have information about text that followed. They contain data for things you did ask for. Apparently, they do not contain data for 1st 20 infections in US, because they are for other countries and you did not ask for those 20 cases!!! (It was other part of long running topic about extrapolation of infection rate through 331M population from measuring one local infection cluster.)
    Why don't you get off your ass (lazy mind) and use google to find those 20 cases yourself?

    While fatality rate in older population is worse, lasting consequences hit younger people more. (Including those who had no complications at all.)
    https://theconversation.com/coronav...reating-covid-19s-neurological-effects-140047
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2020
  19. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    No. He's saying that it's individuals immune system fault. As if the immune system being highly variable between individuals is not ground truth and a fact of life that doctors have to work with?
    Fuk me - if it was up to me, we'd have a dentist and the guy that removes tonsils, because that is the extent of my hospital visits, right? How is that helpful? My stroke of luck with immune system (other than tonsils issue as a child), how is that representative of the rest of the society? Not much.

    Yes sure, you can get lucky at birth and still fuk up your health later in your life - but that again is a fact of life and by far not even close to a choice. I'm all for lets all have a wonderful immune system but that's not something we can work around during pandemics.
     
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  20. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    Vietnam

    Population: 97M
    Main import partner: China
    Terrestrial border with China: 1450 km

    1st COVID-19 case: January 23, 2020
    Total COVID-19 tests for each confirmed case(May 9, 2020): 966
    Total cases: 420
    Total deaths: 0

    While leaders in many countries downplayed the threat of COVID-19, the Vietnamese government communicated in clear, strong terms about the dangers of the illness even before the first case was reported. On January 9, the Ministry of Health first warned citizens of the threat; since then, the government has communicated frequently with the public, adding a short prevention statement to every phone call placed in the country, texting people directly, and taking advantage of Vietnam’s high use of social media—64 million active Facebook users

    In late February, the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health released “Ghen Co Vy,” meaning “Jealous Coronavirus,” a well-known pop song given new lyrics and turned into a handwashing public service announcement. The institute asked Khac Hung to rewrite the lyrics and dancer Quang Dang to choreograph dance moves, which ultimately spearheaded a dance challenge on Tik Tok.47 In March, the Ministry of Health sent ten SMS messages to all cell phone users in the country.48 Throughout these communications, the government constantly used the motto: “Fighting the epidemic is like fighting against the enemy.”49 This messaging engendered a community spirit in which every citizen felt inspired to do their part, whether that was wearing a mask in public or enduring weeks of quarantine.


    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-vietnam


    [​IMG]
     
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