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Intel has problems with 10nm and moves volume production towards 2019

Discussion in 'Frontpage news' started by Hilbert Hagedoorn, Apr 27, 2018.

  1. Hilbert Hagedoorn

    Hilbert Hagedoorn Don Vito Corleone Staff Member

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  2. Fox2232

    Fox2232 Ancient Guru

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    Considering benefits of 10nm, I think intel has other problems which are bigger.
    - They can already sell CPUs w/ 5GHz turbo clock, 10nm will just change number of cores which get there.
    - 10nm will not improve IPC, and as AMD has it better, they'll catch to intel w/ clock and as such per core performance will be better on AMD's side.
    - intel is losing market sentiment left and right as AMD is building awareness (people outside tech crowd are finally recognizing AMD) => Producing chips cheaper on 10nm will not mean much if their sales go down.
    - intel's chips are either bottlenecked by RAM clock or not (mostly not as people can get fast memory these days), AMD's CPUs gain additional performance with faster memory due to InfinityFabric sync. With current memory development, intel is not gaining, but AMD does.

    Intel does not need new shiny fab, it needs new CPU design which fits in current technological environment.

    Because I predict that AMD's Zen2 will clock 4.5GHz+ and will support 4GHz memories at launch time, I can see 10% performance uplift just from those 2 things over Zen+. Then internal improvements of Zen2...

    Intel simply needs to invest more into CPU architecture than to Fab.
     
    nz3777 likes this.
  3. Brit90

    Brit90 Active Member

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    That's probably why they are stealing AMD Staff and now have Jim Keller.
     
  4. alanm

    alanm Ancient Guru

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    And AMD will be 7nm when Zen2 is released next year. Always thought Intel would have the advantage with their own foundries, but seems they've slipped a bit behind.
     

  5. BlueRay

    BlueRay Master Guru

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    Intel is designing a completely new architecture which will come after 2020. So the answer is a better architecture and more cores. Shrinking is slowed down and will slow even more as they are hitting the limits of physics.
     
  6. fantaskarsef

    fantaskarsef Ancient Guru

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    I guess I'm the only one seeing the devil around every corner, Intel announcing they have issues with 10nm meaning "we got to charge a higher price for 10nm CPUs!" :D
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2018
  7. Kaarme

    Kaarme Maha Guru

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    As far as I'm concerned, this is good news. I'm sure they will sort out the problems in 2019 at the latest, so the competition can continue as it should, and it's not like Intel wouldn't still be making the best gaming CPUs even if they aren't the best otherwise. But let's call this karma; they refused to really develop their CPUs when they were in a position to milk the market as much as they wanted, so now they are paying the price by being unable to develop as fast as they want.
     
  8. asturur

    asturur Member Guru

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    Also if i understand good, amd cpu cores are still 4, and they get paired in packages. This gives them a fixed are to produce and then they can scale `gluing` them togheter.
    While intel is going with monoblock cores, that are more problematic as the area increase
     
  9. Rantoc

    Rantoc New Member

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    Point 2 in that note is what annoys me the most, its obvious intel have been funded alot of their failures from the solid PC money. Less innovation (around 9% generation to generation) and at the same time higher prices for their PC parts.

    Glad AMD came around to fck that up with real innovation at resonable prices for what we the consumers gets IE force intel to start innovate again rather than funnel that money away due to lack of competition.

    My new system is amd based and the old 7700k went to my file server, the x470 chipset along with the 2700x was hasstle free (asus crosshair vii hero) where the 7700k along with z270 (asus strix) had more issues - Amd really have come around swinging again and im happy for that of oibsious reasons - All consumers win on that in the end!
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2018
  10. Venix

    Venix Master Guru

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    the ccx's are fabbed in pairs so 2 ccx's are always a single piece ! threadrippers are 2 of those pairs and epyc 4 ... but still having 16 cores on 2 pieces instead of 1 helps the yields tenfolds !
     

  11. coth

    coth Master Guru

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    Not anyhow related. They shifting mass production of 10 nm, not development of new architecture. Likely because they want to start with 10+, as 10 is a little less effective than highly successful 14++. Still, we likely to see a bit of CNL 9th generation this summer.
     
  12. Embra

    Embra Master Guru

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    They have actually had problems with 10 nm since last year.

    Maybe sell off their foundries?? Probably not, but is seems expensive to run them right now.
     
  13. nevcairiel

    nevcairiel Master Guru

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    AMDs "7nm" is probably about the same size as Intels 10nm, though.
     
  14. Embra

    Embra Master Guru

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    But is seems to be working. ;)
     
  15. reix2x

    reix2x Member Guru

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    Probably they don't want to invest that much in a new PC architecture, they rather prefer to invest in fabrication methods that will improve all their product range so they can keep pushing themselves in datacenter market.
     

  16. flashmozzg

    flashmozzg Member Guru

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    Damn. I was hoping to buy a new laptop later this summer =( I guess I'll have to wait another year.
     
  17. JamesSneed

    JamesSneed Master Guru

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    Say what? Everything Intel has and are doing points in the entire other direction. From the fact they aren't pushing hard to 10nm ie not investing in the fab as much, to the fact they hired some of the top minds for GPU(Raja) and CPU(Jim Keller) development.

    LIkely all we can read into this is Ice Lake on 10nm either does not manufacture well or doesn't perform well. I suspect getting to those high clocks on 10nm is harder than they anticipated.
     
  18. waltc3

    waltc3 Master Guru

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    Keller went to Intel from Tesla, so he was already an ex-AMD'er. Raja is working with Intel on entirely unrelated projects to his work at AMD, and I cannot imagine him leaving for Intel without the blessings of Su and other people in AMD. There are NDA's and all kinds of legal things protecting AMD's IP, and restraining ex-AMD employees (as is true with any tech company) and the last thing Intel wants is to lose another billion dollars cash to AMD in a lawsuit, I would imagine. Myself, I think that Raja hit his top stride with this last discreet GPU for AMD (Polaris and then Vega) and he simply has nowhere else to go from there--I don't think he was a "pressure person," etc.--tired of the ultra-competitive rat-race. Can't find fault with that...;)
     
  19. user1

    user1 Master Guru

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    Thats some pretty bad news for intel, i don't think intel can really afford another year. they could effectively be both behind a node and have an inferior design. icelake better have some real improvements, they are in for some real trouble if zen 2 is a solid improvement over zen1
     
  20. DeskStar

    DeskStar Master Guru

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    Seems like Intel's games have finally caught up with them. Maybe they shouldn't have sat so high up on that proverbial hog and forgot how to push technological boundaries.

    Maybe instead of trickle feeding so many different platforms they could take more of a recent move from AMD and attempt to seem like they care about their customers now....?!?
     

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