Discussion in 'Frontpage news' started by Hilbert Hagedoorn, Dec 13, 2019.
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Yeah... I hate to say, but you sort of line up what I'd expect to see too (5930K), or in what situation I am (pre upgrade).
As for Intel, there's a reason they hired a former CTO of other companies... emphasising the T here: Reuters article
On the other hand, if they don't step up their fab game, they soon might even be surpassed by Chinese companies practically unkown here: pcgameshardware.de
Why are you telling him this? How was any of that relevant in the slightest? Just some weird flexing? Because you have used computers a long time, you're not toxic?
I thought they lost already. Except top desktop SKU with current best performance CPU, nothing else from intel makes sense when CPUs are more expensive, have less threads and only offer meaningless lead in average performance unless you are playing at 720p or lower... Considering current difference in average performance when GPU is not bottleneck, 1% low is probably more relevant then average fps.
Intel may have lost the technological lead and thust the appeal for DIY enthusiasts, but their desktop parts are still the benchmark and have a slight lead in performance over AMD.
While AMD parts are significantly cheaper - a $200 Ryzen 5 3600X goes head to head with $360 Core i7-8700K and 9700K etc. - this will change next spring when Comet Lake S levels the playing field again with 6/12 cores for Core i5 , 8/16 for Core i7, and 10/20 for Core i9.
So again, Intel will have to botch every new process node down from 7 nm before it starts bleeding money on maintaining price parity with AMD Zen 4 on a 5 nm TSMC node. And IMHO there are exactly zero chances for this to happen.
unless you have a crystal ball, it IS possible. maybe not likely, but definitely NOT impossible to happen.
the fact that a big company fails this drastically, means they didnt make just one wrong decision.
Sure, just like the chances of being killed by an asteroid. Or the chances that a monkey with a typewriter will produce Shakespeare's sonnets at some point. Or the chances that all Intel's engineering and management teams forget everything they knew about silcon wafer production, lose any clue on how to overcome their production problems, and start throwing coins and rollling dices to randomly select their next step.
Probably a non-zero probability as well, but practical chances for this are exactly zero.
Intel certainly made mistakes, but I think they were completely blindsided by Zen. And you know what? I don't blame them. I mean, who here thought that AMD would ever release a 16-core CPU for a consumer platform? Even the most optimistic AMD fan in 2017 would have considered this too far-fetched (even a 16-core HEDT product was considered extreme). And even if Intel had a crystal ball into the future, there wasn't much they could do about it in such a short period of time.
Compounding this is their failure with 10nm and the rise of TSMC. Although the former was due to their own hubris, the latter they couldn't do much about - all that Apple money made it inevitable that TSMC would rise to the top. Even if Intel makes all the right moves with their process nodes going forward, they will likely play second-fiddle to TSMC from now on (I don't see any of us completely doing away with smartphones anytime soon).
Intel also probably wasn't too worried about Zen 1, as it had much lower single-threaded performance and only really excelled at multi-threaded tasks (and Zen+ only offered minor improvements). Zen 2 is where the potential of AMD's design began to shine, with the chiplet design really bearing fruit (especially for Threadripper). AMD is now on another level, with consumer Ryzen products rivaling Intel's HEDT products (and AMD's HEDT products rivaling or beating Intel's server products). It's little surprise why Intel's CEO, Bob Swan, indicated that they are no longer looking to maintain their 90% share of the CPU market - he knows that this is now impossible.
you said zero chances
and unless you know the future, the chance (which means unpredicted) is not zero.
probability is a different story.
TSMC is already a company with the same capitalisation as Intel (though 50% the revenue and profits as of 2017).
And Intel is slowly realizing that having 90% of the x86 CPU market could be less profitable than having a 30% share of all contracted silicon.
And as I said above, even AMD weren't expecting themselves to take the lead.
In everyday sense, there are no chances for an event with very low probability to actually happen.
As usual, let's wait and see.
We could argue endless about what will happen, we could predict, extrapolate.
Just let things go naturally on their way, while enjoying the actual present time.