Desktop sales expected to resume growth in 3Q17

Discussion in 'Frontpage news' started by Hilbert Hagedoorn, Aug 7, 2017.

  1. Hilbert Hagedoorn

    Hilbert Hagedoorn Don Vito Corleone Staff Member

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    PC sales have been pretty weak in the first half of 2017, but is expected to start growing in the third quarter driven by new products from AMD and Intel for the gaming and high-end desktop markets....

    Desktop sales expected to resume growth in 3Q17
     
  2. Aura89

    Aura89 Ancient Guru

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    At first, i thought that said "Desktop sales expected to resume growth in 3017"

    hahahaha
     
  3. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    So Intel is up in server space and in regards to AMD server orders, Lisa Su has recently replied something along:

    meh, servers are lumpy business, it takes time yadayada

    This short window untill Coffee Lake launches will be the best AMD can ever hope for!
    Yet even with that, even with full Ryzen quarter and even with Polaris sold out, that was not enough for AMD to report any profit in Q2. While ofc Intel recorded record profits.

    I have no idea why ppl called AMD Q2 results - GREAT!
     
  4. schmidtbag

    schmidtbag Ancient Guru

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    That's because for AMD, that statement is true - even Interlagos and Magny Cours (architectures revolved around server needs) didn't sell that well. Where Eypc will win is servers that are heavily dependent upon GPUs and/or disk performance. 128 PCIe lanes is very attractive. And sure, 32 cores is appealing too, but if CPU cores/threads are what someone is looking for, neither Intel or AMD are the best choices - they're the ones you go to when your software is incompatible with other architectures.

    I agree now is AMD's chance, but you have to remember that servers/mainframes are a long-term investment (not necessarily in how long they're used, but the planning of buying them and setting them up). Server admins already have a rough idea of what Coffee Lake will offer. They have already made up their minds as to which brand they want to go for, so it doesn't matter when AMD releases Epyc. For everyone who isn't setting up a multi-million dollar server, Epyc likely isn't going to be that appealing. Sure, you could probably build 2 Epycs for the cost of a single Intel equivalent (which means great redundancy) but the main reason Intel does better in servers is because of reliability and reputation. For small companies, Epyc is too new and too risky to depend on. There are many people who really like Ryzen but avoid using it for their work PC strictly because the reliability isn't proven yet.

    Because it was great? Did you not see the numbers? Sure, AMD is still in the red, but despite not including all of their sales, AMD almost completely eliminated years worth of debt in just a half year. That was significant enough that their stocks have reached the highest point they've been in roughly 10 years. I would say "great" is a very suitable description of the Q2 results. From what I recall, it was better than predicted (thanks to Etherium miners).
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2017

  5. scoter man1

    scoter man1 Ancient Guru

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    Unless you're talking about graphics cards, lol. Thanks miners -.-
     
  6. Stormyandcold

    Stormyandcold Ancient Guru

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    Nearly breaking even is no small feat for AMD in this current market.
     
  7. Aura89

    Aura89 Ancient Guru

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    Because you don't know how to read quarterly results?
     
  8. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    And yet it took only 2 days for the market to see it my way and for stock to drop, after thr initial post Q2 rise. One analyst simply concluded: AMD makes cheap products period.


    Not making a buck in in many ways nearly ideal quarter is hugely troubling.
    Next stop, enter Coffee Lake and Volta. What then
     
  9. D3M1G0D

    D3M1G0D Ancient Guru

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    Meh, I generally don't pay much attention to PC sales. The last time that I had a pre-built PC was in my freshmen year in college (a Celeron 300A w/ Nvidia Riva TNT2). I guess it's good news for PC makers though.

    Relax man, they hadn't even released the entire Ryzen family yet, nor the APUs, nor EPYC/TR. We should get a better picture of things in the upcoming two quarters.

    Do you play the market?
     
  10. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    Now we're talking. That's that famous AMD thinking in which competition stands still while AMD keeps chugging out new products. We already know from the outlook that nothing major will happen in Q3. Lisa said server situation looks meh, and nothing will happen with bleak margins either despite embedded being low and haviing better mix of high margin products.
    Which suggest tough competition and more price slashing.

    Only crypto. Xtra long on BTC :nerd:
     

  11. Aura89

    Aura89 Ancient Guru

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    Awww, someone thinks he knows why the market drops and etc., as well as claims to say that his views are correct because of it.

    So cute.
     
  12. D3M1G0D

    D3M1G0D Ancient Guru

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    I think AMD could have went for higher margins, but chose not to. If they were like Intel, they would have limited overclocking on their Ryzen 7 chips - after all, no reason to buy a 1800X when you can get a 1700 and overclock. The conventional wisdom is that they are focusing on market share, which I agree is the best long-term solution. Also, it's no surprise the server situation will be gradual, seeing as how they lost their entire reputation over that thing called Bulldozer. :p

    I'm iffy on the cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum seem to be bouncing back, but the overall future is by no means clear (it was looking pretty scary for a while). What's you opinion on the Bitcoin split?

    I'm long AMD and NVDA, which make up the majority of my portfolio. I'm up 100% on the former and 200% on the latter, and I'm hoping they'll go higher. Can't wait for Nvidia's earnings on Thursday. :)
     
  13. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    Split or hard fork sound so omnious and dangerous in crypto world that everyone braced themselves for a posible (mini) crash. But who needs yet another crypto currency, right?
    Who theF is going to support something called Bitcoin Cash when BTC is doing so great?

    When you expect tsunami and nothing happens ofc you gonna celebrate, hence BTC up
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2017
  14. airbud7

    airbud7 Ancient Guru

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    whether it's ryzen, threadripper or the fact there graphics cards are great at mining AMD are looking very good and they deserve all the credit...they done good...Real good.

    I see a bright future for them.
     
  15. schmidtbag

    schmidtbag Ancient Guru

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    And then not long after it went up the highest it's been in 10 years. If you're going to cherry-pick results, stocks are not going to help your point.
    You clearly don't understand how the economy works. You think stocks reflect a businesses success (it doesn't) and you apparently have no clue loans/bonds exist. If AMD literally didn't make a buck, mind explaining how they managed to pay manufacturing costs, or how their company still retains value? They went from $1.4 billion in debt to $16 million in a matter of months, selling Ryzen (a product easily overshadowed by Intel and not appealing to the masses) and the RX 580 (a decent product but nothing that special). How in any way is that troubling, let alone "hugely"? Have you ever leased a car before? Had school loans? A large business expense? Home mortgage? Owed money to a drug dealer? Most people have at least one of these things and can live happy or normal lives despite being in debt and except for owing money to a drug dealer, none of these things is troubling.

    Meanwhile, unless Intel pulls something magic with Coffee Lake, it isn't going to be much more than in incremental bump like we've been seeing since 2012. I'm willing to bet Volta will be a superior architecture vs AMD's offerings, but since we're talking money here, I don't think AMD really cares considering the sales they're seeing due to miners and compute clusters. Sad time for gamers, but great for anyone else.
     

  16. airbud7

    airbud7 Ancient Guru

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    If AMD came out with an apu that performed as well as say a gtx1050/rx460 they would hit pay dirt.
     
  17. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    Check your numbers. Better yet, stay away from numbers all together.

    AMD repaid $1.4 B with few month's of selling Ryzen and 580!! Zero debt! Are you insane?

    [​IMG]
     
  18. schmidtbag

    schmidtbag Ancient Guru

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    No, I think you should be taking your own advise:
    https://ycharts.com/financials/AMD/income_statement/quarterly
    Note how revenue was $1.2B and net income is $16M. Also note there is a profit - something you seem adamant doesn't exist. But we're going to be at this all day if we keep picking sources to suit our own needs. That source tells a different story than this one:
    http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/bonds.aspx?symbol=amd
    Which is where I got my 1.4B debt number from. Furthermore, here's a source claiming AMD was in 1.6B in debt (2016 article):
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4031413-advanced-micro-devices-math-add

    But none of this matters - the point is AMD's debt is dramatically shrinking in a short amount of time, to the point they might be in the black before Q2 2018. That is significant, and saying otherwise is either ignorance or trolling. The market has a positive outlook:
    https://www.estimize.com/amd

    I never said anything about zero debt, so you might want to get your own sanity checked.

    Your pessimism is pointless. From the week of Ryzen's launch date, all you've been focusing on were stocks and AMD's debt, yet you seem to comfortably ignore how the stock market works, the eventual improvements in the stocks, and the amount of debt that was paid off. I don't get what your gripe is, because if you're hoping AMD will go out of business, it's not going to happen at this rate. Maybe you're salty because you bought stocks in 2006 that you never saw a return in (and probably never will).

    Give it a rest. We're PC enthusiasts - trying to make a product look bad because a company owes some millions of dollars just doesn't make sense. If you haven't noticed, people tend to be more upset of Intel's anticompetitiveness than AMD's poor internal management skills.
     
  19. vbetts

    vbetts Don Vincenzo Staff Member

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    HAY

    HAY

    Simmer people. Keep it nice.
     
  20. Noisiv

    Noisiv Ancient Guru

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    https://abload.de/img/screenshot_20170808-06arfs.jpg

    You cant even follow a single indicator, ie debt.
    You managed to confuse AMD's net loss of $16M in Q2 with their debt. A debt which is still $1.4B, and NOT $16M like you claim. I'm out.

    Q.E.D.
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2017

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