Discussion in 'Frontpage news' started by Hilbert Hagedoorn, Oct 7, 2022.
AMD Reduces Q3 Revenue Forecast by $1.1 Billion - Cites Weak PC Market
What are they smoking? Let's look at those QR and see where all the previous windfall came from... hmm... GPU Crypto.... Nah... /s
Maybe if prices of PC hardware were at an even half reasonable rate, instead of the absolute greed we are currently seeing.
PC market logic: Demand is weak, so let's increase prices to make it better.
Someone send them a newspaper telling that crypto and covid restrictions are over.
Seriously, releasing such expensive CPUs and motherboards, during a recession, and increasing energy prices, was a really dumb move.
Let's hope this serves as a lesson for when AMD releases their GPUs on November 3rd.
This is true, PC sale in a friend's shop (one of the best here) have lowered by 1/3 of unit and decreased by more than 1/2 in value on this year, mean that people buy more celeron an pentium than i5 and R5 that were previous best sale...
Well the prices in Europe is already high due to the high price of the US Dollar. Thats atleast a price bump of 20% for EU and then add the mandatory 19-25% VAT.
No sane person is going to upgrade to Ryzen 7000, unless coming from a very old system.
And GPU prices are still absurd, at least here in Europe. Show me an RX6600 for 200€ and I know two will sell instantly. They cost almost 400€, f that.
I think it's hard to divorce these two things in the market. And I wonder how much of that is causing these issues. I have a ton of friends that are regular normal people, that bought GPUs just to mine on. But then I have other friends that bought GPUs for the first time because they were stuck inside in 2020. I don't know as a company how you find out what percent of growth is attributed to each.
It wouldn´t make an world of difference because of several issues already talked but it would help shift some units.
In my case, i`m considering upgrading my current 7600K system but not with these crazy prices...
It never fails!
We can never get exact numbers but when you consider the sharp decline in sales and correlate it to mining trends, you can get a rough idea of how much of them were miners, and there is a significant amount of them. Your friends may not be legit miners, but how many of them would have bought their GPUs if mining wasn't going to help pay for the hardware? They were effectively saying "if you can't beat em join em". In other words, they were still technically part of the mining craze, they just used their GPUs for more than just mining.
Of those who would have bought their GPUs no matter what, how many of them earn 6 figures in a year? High-end GPUs proportionately didn't see as much inflation, and perhaps if they're wealthy enough, they don't care. But most people aren't willing to spend ~$2000 for a single component just to play games, so such people are a small minority and therefore are not statistically significant. This is especially true when you consider the higher price margins made the retailers profit, not so much the chip makers.
AMD and Nvidia have 20+ years of sales statistics, market analyses, and people who are paid good wages to study and follow these things. They know, even if they pretend not to know. The only thing they can't know beforehand is when the crypto crashes. Everything else, they know.
I'm just saying that like these two issues you brought up coincided. Mining crashed around the same time most people also started coming out of their homes again. I also think another issue is that the pricing pushed people to consoles - we saw lots of posts like that even here on Guru3D which is mostly enthusiasts.
I'm just saying as a company idk how you divorce all the intersecting issues for a forecast. Like in 2020/2021 steam userbase and various other gaming communities/markets grew absolutely massively, like insane growth. In the meantime AMD/Nvidia are selling massive numbers of GPUs, to I'm sure both miners and gamers. So how do you know how much of that growth is tied to miners and/or gamers? How do you forecast that 3-6 months out? I think there exists a universe where mining collapses but COVID is still raging and perhaps the forecast isn't reduced by nearly as much money.
That`s not entirely correct.
They don`t know what`s going to happen in the future, like everyone else.
They try to predict their future sales based on prior sales years and advanced statistics but despite all this, they still fail on their previsions sometimes, and this is completly normal, it happens on every company.
If you look at quarterly results, that probably paints a clearer picture, since covid restrictions have been reduced far enough in time from mining bubbles bursting to be observed in the data. In my area, covid restrictions have been pretty lax for almost a full year. You can also look at trends with the used market.
The Steam userbase may have grown but that doesn't necessarily tie in with hardware purchases either. If you look at the Steam hardware survey, the most popular modern desktop GPU is the 3060, which is in 6th place or 3.4% of the market. There is a 3060 mobile but nobody is buying mobile parts for mining, and perhaps the 3060 mobile is the only truly affordable and good PC gaming platform that isn't the Steam Deck. Considering how many units were being shipped, I would expect the desktop RTX 3000 series would be higher.
When it comes to AMD, you have to legit scroll down to find the first RX 6000 series GPU. The RX 580 is far more popular than pretty much the whole 5000 and 6000 series. To me, that suggests there aren't a lot of gamers getting their hands on them. The 580 was a popular GPU but the more expensive GTX 1080 is apparently more popular.
Of course, the Steam hardware survey has its flaws, and their data alone is not enough to conclude anything since it doesn't provide absolute numbers, which is an important detail. But, when you consider how many chips Nvidia and AMD sold in the past 2 years and how few of them have made a significant dent in Steam's surveys, that is a data point favoring the notion that miners make up a very significant portion of those who bought the hardware.
I mean yeah for GPUs but that's just a subset of what's happening here - the article's graph shows client segment being nearly cut in half. That's CPU/APUs. I mean maybe miners are buying those too but I'd imagine it would be less impacted by the collapse. That's why I'm saying I think this is a combination of things. Yeah mining definitely impacted all the tech companies but there's a general downturn happening here -- apple for example cutting production of their new phones, intel posted a massive decline mostly from Client PC/Server processors.
That is correct ,I dumped my 12900K system for AMD 7700X system .
And AMD stocks are coming down, -11% today and still 3 hours to close the markets.
Why? 12900K is very capable and the 7700x isn't much better.
True, but think of it like this:
The Ryzen 5000 series was released almost a year ago. Most people who wanted to upgrade their CPU would have done so within the few months after the release.
Those who didn't buy back then were waiting for Alder Lake and Ryzen 7000. Intel's pricing has become more attractive, while AMD's got worse.
Of those who would have been fine with upgrading to Ryzen 7000, they likely wanted to do a full-system upgrade, but they weren't going to do that with inflated GPU prices.
When it comes to miners, they try to attach as many GPUs to a single motherboard as possible, so I suspect even at the height of the craze, they would have a minimal impact on CPU sales.
So yeah, when it comes to CPUs, I'd agree that miners probably didn't cause a direct impact on these results. Indirectly, they probably did a little bit.
This I find a little weird since I wouldn't think phone sales would be impacted by lockdowns or miners.