So are we heading toward another recession?

I don't follow stocks and all that as I don't have much money to begin with. Just wondering if I can expect to lose the little I have, shortly?

 

At this point with the long rise in the market, you might consider switching over to lower yield but more stable institutional shares or money markets. I am. With the election of Trump, I expected this 'irrational exuberance' in the market. I'm up nearly 30%.
But, what goes up, must come down. The market is cyclical and I am seriously considering consolidating gains. In other words, going more conservative in lower yielding but stable instruments.

 

I'm unfortunately fully invested in growth stocks, and I don't plan on selling (they're in a non-registered account and I'd rather not take the tax hit at the moment, as I am up by quite a bit). If a recession happens I'll just ride it out and try to buy more on the cheap if I can - I also don't expect a heavy crash (most likely just a slight downturn).

The big X factor in this is Trump and the on-going trade wars. No telling how that'll turn out, but it's wreaked havoc with my stocks already. I suspect the coming slowdown is partially due to this war and I'd like a resolution sooner than later.

I now expect the Fed to lower rates at the next meeting - Trump may get his wish after all. I just hope the Bank of Canad doesn't follow suit anytime soon - we don't need to add more fuel to the already overheated housing market in Toronto.

 

Similar situation here. I've got about 6 months of my take-home pay in ETFs (tech and small cap). I've seen it vary up and down pretty wildly this year. I'm young though at 39, so nothing to do but shove as much in as I can and hang on. Trying to time the peaks and valley's has always been a fool's errand for me when I've tried. Get out thinking it's going to get worse and I miss a major upswing. Buy in when it seems like the future is bright and the next week it drops by several points for a seemingly random reason.

At this point I'm just telling myself the more I can acquire, the better. I'm sure eventually it will be worth more than I paid for it.

 

We are heading toward another recession right from current one?

 

I'm about the same age. I got into the market in my early twenties (about the time that the Great Recession hit) and was a trader to start. I opened an account at Interactive Brokers (for the low commissions on US stocks) and funneled money from my first job in there. I bought hedged ETFs for gold, natural gas and oil as well as some small-cap stocks. Made some money here and there, then made a big loss on a penny stock. I stopped trading after that and left things alone for a few years while I focused on my career.

And then three years ago I got back into the market, but as an investor. I bought shares in some promising tech stocks (mostly NVDA and AMD) and I've been holding them ever since. I'm now fully invested and thinking of selling, but not during a recession. Instead, I'd like to deposit some more cash (I refuse to buy on margin) and pick up a few more shares if prices go down enough - otherwise I'll continue to hold. The last thing I'd ever do is panic sell. Remember the words of Warren Buffett: be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful

Anyways, good luck on your investing future!

P.S., I know the feeling of trying to time the market. During my trading days I'd stress about missing a big upswing and panic when a stock I just bought tanks. It's one of the reasons why I got out of trading - you're just wasting money on commissions while becoming a nervous wreck.

 

current one? ...what current one?

 

The direction things are headed, yes.....we will end up in another recession. There are too many policies being pushed that increase the likelihood of a recession.

Contrary to what the stock market, the falsified unemployment rate, and the GDP claim to indicate, the US economy is struggling.

Contrary to what the Gov't claims, the economy is crap.....but we're not actually in a recession right now. At least not in the US. I don't know about where you're at.

 

I was joking ofc, but I have a feeling that here in Russia recession has started right after 2008.

 

I only invest direct through Vanguard, so there are no trading fees on their ETFs. I typically buy in at the end of the month once all my bills are paid and the credit card is back to zero. I did play around with stocks on AMD and Nvidia over the last couple of years when it was obvious the mining craze was going to dirve them both up. Made some nice gains, but paying fees made my skin crawl. I don't see myself getting into more trading until I get 50-60K in low cost investments like ETFs. Maybe at that point the fees and risk would give me less anxiety.

 

The commissions at IB are fairly decent for US stocks. $0.005 per share means you can buy 200 shares for only $1 - ideal for frequently trading small amount of shares. Compare that with places like TD Waterhouse (where I had an account as well) where it's a flat $10 commission to trade stocks. Most major brokerages charge anywhere from $5 - $10, depending on the frequency of trading, which can really eat into your profits. The only downside to IB is that you need to trade a minimum of $10 in commissions a month. This currently works against me (I initially opened it for low-commission trading, not investing) but I have too much money tied up in it to move it elsewhere (one of the reasons why I'm thinking of selling).

If you want commission-free trading of stocks then you can look into Robinhood (https://robinhood.com/), which allows you to trade stocks, ETFs and other securities with zero commissions. I haven't used it myself so I can't comment too much on it, but I've heard good things about it from others (I think it's only for US residents though).

 

If you spend $1,000,000 a day it would take you 50,877 years and 6 months to spend all United States debt.

So - you tell me.

 

A lot of blame for that: “January 1, 1835, president Andrew Jackson paid off the entire national debt, the only time in U.S. history that has been accomplished.”

Line up all the following presidents.

 

We can always print more money....just the way it works.

PS: we can always file bankruptcy and start over!......talk about a world crash like no other!

 

That would give us hyper-inflation, and as all currency is fiat, it is not based on anything, which is why crypto has no value.

 

Except if you have dollars worldwide, and pay for oil with it, it works...

I might be wrong, but US is the only country right now that can get away with it. EU might follow it, but it has standards, like a fine lady.

 

No that's not how it works. Although I wouldn't be surprised if these economic "experts" working for this admin suggest it.
BTW - if the economy is so "historically" good there would be no reason to worry about any of this.

 

and the last admin spent how much?

 

Just watch CNN and MSDNC and things will become crystal clear.

To them the sky is falling and the world is coming to an end.

 

lol, very true. Basically the message for the last few years has been "Get in the bunker"