Former top Microsoft exec says world is over the PC

Discussion in 'Frontpage news' started by The Goose, Mar 13, 2012.

  1. sykozis

    sykozis Ancient Guru

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    Never seen the Zune interface....almost bought one in 2007, but CC was sold out. Doesn't seem like it's been that long. Guess I should pay more attention.

    Starting his own company, seems to me like a good reason for leaving. If his company succeeds, he'll make more than he would staying at MS.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2012
  2. fr33k

    fr33k Ancient Guru

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    This I find hard to agree with. M$ is simply trying to garner the handheld market back to them.
    They have the desktop market in their pocket so for them to completely tie the handheld market up they have to convince people who already own PC's that it's worth getting rid of android in favor of phones/pads that they can say... access their personal files and programs on their PC while on the road in real time.
    But there is one thing I agree with that guy about- M$ isn't doing this fast enough.

    But in the end, the economy is going to dictate handhelds not software companies.
    Honestly i believe PC sales are down because they are no longer seemingly making leaps and bounds with PC tech. Its growing stagnant and handhelds are the "new thing-ish" well more-affordable than ever new thing by being mostly free :p
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2012
  3. dchalf10

    dchalf10 Banned

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    I think tablets are the future, you won't have a desktop PC anymore, you'll have a tablet with a dock/keyboard and you'll be able to take all your games and programs wherever you go.

    You just dock your tablet into your home or office power supply and you stream all your tablet content to your TV in your loungeroom or your office monitor. Then when you go home/to work you just undock your tablet and it comes with you.

    There is only so long they can keep selling VHS tape sized video cards.
     
  4. deltatux

    deltatux Guest

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    I think the issue here is that everyone's so caught up with "the desktop is dead because of the tablet". However, to be honest, a tablet shouldn't replace a traditional desktop nor laptop. It should complement them instead. To be honest, that's how I use tablets and it works great.

    deltatux
     

  5. sykozis

    sykozis Ancient Guru

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    MS has never had the handheld market. PalmOS, BlackBerry OS....both beat WindowsCE and Windows Mobile rather easily. Android and iOS knocked them off rather easily. MS is fighting to get a foothold in the mobile market. MS knows they can't compete without providing the exact thing Android lacks and doing it better than iOS.

    MS is adding parts from desktop Windows to Windows Phone because it's the only way they have a shot at the mobile market. MS is adding Metro to desktop Windows because the "classic" desktop UI isn't suitable for tablets. Chances are, Windows9 will see a merging of the desktop and mobile versions of Windows.

    And that's what MS is pushing for with Windows8. They don't want to see either platform "die"....but, lets face facts. There's not enough room in the market for so many mobile form factors. We've got laptops, netbooks, "ultrabooks", tablets, smartphones, next comes AMD's version of an "Ultrabook".... The mobile market is flooded. For tablets to succeed desktop's, they'll have to start pushing for docking systems that can replace a keyboard, monitor and mouse. A tablet in touch screen form can't possibly replace a desktop. They're too inconvenient for media creation as a touch screen device. Eventually, they will be in a position to take over. I don't see Windows8 as the "make or break" launch that so many tech bloggers claim it will be.
     
  6. deltatux

    deltatux Guest

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    What I'm saying is that it's wrong to think that these devices "must take over" or cannibalize other market segments. There should really just be 3 market segments: desktop, laptop and tablet. The whole ultrabook thing is really a niche market to be honest. Even Apple has had a tough time selling their ultrabook. ASUS can barely lift it off the ground right now.

    Tablets are just a modified MID concept and should stay that way. Sure, tablets with keyboards help take notes, type emails and edit that document but to be honest, these devices were not designed with heavy productivity and should be thought as such. Netbooks were just a stop gap for a MID device and tablet form factor perfected the MID concept. As such tablets has replaced the netbook space.

    Like I said, tablets are meant to complement existing traditional computing paradigms and shouldn't be thought as a replacement to traditional computing paradigms.

    There are significant uses for all three market segments and allows the end consumer to decide what they want to invest in. Personally, I have all three and each and one of them are used for whatever is needed based on the strengths of the device.

    deltatux
     
  7. fr33k

    fr33k Ancient Guru

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    Windows8 wont be the make or break. Its going to soften the market though for windows9 being a full hybrid and cheap phones should be more-than easy to make by then so even the lower demographic should be able to afford a mostly top end tablet/phone.
    I think the problem windows has is its always catered to low demographic and cellphones never have. Apple has always been high-end only so the rich are more than familiar with iOS even 10 years ago i knew more about OS6 than i did windows because apple gave all those imacs to schools in one fell-swoop. So today we see the rich buying iphone like crazy without hesitation thus the sales are inflated. Android came in and took over mid-demographic (aka, CORE demographic). Hopefully windows can come in and take over the remaining and recover high-end.

    Interesting times ahead. Also i was saying what delta is, hopefully his words are more moving than mine ^^.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2012
  8. sykozis

    sykozis Ancient Guru

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    I own a desktop, laptop, tablet and smartphone. The smartphone is used for calls, texting and mobile web if necessary. I only got it because I can't find a basic phone worth buying. With tablets like the Asus Transformer, if they can get price under control, will eventually work their way into the netbook and laptop market. You've got all the portability of a tablet with the functionality of a laptop. At the right price point, it's hard to justify a laptop. In time, tablets will start to catch up to desktops in performance and with the right docking system it would be possible to completely replace a laptop. Regardless of what we think, this is the path the industry is heading down.
     
  9. fr33k

    fr33k Ancient Guru

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    No this is the path the industry WANTS to head down. The concept of cloud based computing where everyone owns a tablet/handheld and all the heavy compute tasks are performed by servers owned by companies.
    In this world the business wins and the consumer loses.
    Good or bad? you decide.
     
  10. sykozis

    sykozis Ancient Guru

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    Which mobile OS controls the market will depend on a few things.

    1. Which is the most user friendly
    2. Which has the best price position
    3. Which provides the best experience
    4. Which provides the best features

    Whichever pulls those off best, will win. Right now, google has #2 covered extremely well. With the current economy, that's enough to give them an advantage in the world-wide smartphone market. To gain traction, MS will have to master all 4 points. The only way to do it will be to essentially merge the desktop and mobile Windows versions so the experience is familiar regardless of which you're actually using. Since the industry is heading towards mobility, whether we like it or not, MS has to start moving Windows in that direction.....whether we like it or not. In the grand scheme of things, as long as Windows Phone 8 launches successfully, it really matters little what happens with Windows8 itself. For MS to have any reason to worry, both Windows8 and Windows Phone 8 would have to suffer failed launches.

    From a security standpoint....cloud computing is the worst idea the industry has ever conceived. Unfortunately, the industry has more control than the consumer. The HD-DVD vs Blu-ray "war" proved that. Based on stand-alone players, HD-DVD outsold Blu-ray but, because Sony used a Blu-ray drive in their playstations, the facts were skewed enough for HD-DVD to die. In the end, it makes little difference what consumers want, so long as the industry wants it bad enough.
     

  11. fr33k

    fr33k Ancient Guru

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    For start, HD-DVD failed because it had TONS of bad publicity with the whole ant-piracy issue and the major flaw in its encryption key. One thing we can agree on is piracy holds a huge place in the industry even though the industry fights it hard. RIAA and MIAA know this all to well and so does M$ who have tried hard each time and failed. Where as M$'s roots are from underground coding to begin with, and they make use of this fact every way you look (kinect fits in well here).

    The difference here is M$ knows their users well enough that they know they don't like "too much" control from big corps. This will drive the next phone i think. The first thing people did with iphone is "jail" break it. Google used their endless coffer to profit off of it right away.
    But like we're getting at here is the network between user owned PC and user owned phone is going to drive M$ into the market.


    Cloud based computing (which this guy in said article preaches) is going to utterly fail. Just like HD-DVD, just like Sony's disc based protection etc etc. I just don't see people, in a fear of ACTA/corperate control based internet, giving that much control over to a company ever- even if early adopters(rich people) jumped on the ipad/iphone wagon.

    Hopefully this delay is only caused by M$ not resorting to slave based labor to drive prices down.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2012
  12. hallryu

    hallryu Don Altobello

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    Blasphemy!
     
  13. Kwok

    Kwok Guest

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    Why in the world would I want to give up my gaming power --- My software power and options---and my 27" HDMI screen, for a 10" tablet with less of everything?
    No way----the reason these mini-computers are popular is because they are affordable and mobile. Kind of like the reason consoles are popular, cheap and mobile.
    Perhaps PCs ARE less mainstream now because of Tablets and Mobiles---that doesnt make them any less viable. Our Market is still growing, not shrinking---it just has more competition.
     
  14. Denial

    Denial Ancient Guru

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    Cloud based computing is not going to fail. No one has fear of corporate control - billions of people already give up their information via facebook/google/bing or whatever. When they see the advantages that cloud offers they will flock to it.

    The only thing you're giving up is computational power. I don't see how you're giving up options or your 27 inch screen if you're using a dock. As for the power, it's pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Hard core gamers are at most a $5B market in terms of hardware (AMD/Nvidia graphics revenue). The computer industry is probably in the trillions by now in terms of overall hardware. We're a drop in the bucket. I'm sure we will still be taken care of - but the general trend will be towards mobile computing - especially because they are more than capable of doing what 99% of the population wants to do.
     
  15. fr33k

    fr33k Ancient Guru

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    your name suits you.

    I suppose you think anonymous and lulzsec are just figments of the imagination and the occupy movement was just a bunch of crazy lunatics.

    facebook doesn't contain nearly the amount of control that cloud based computing would give corporations. So its easy to see people being "okay" with it.
     

  16. Clouseau

    Clouseau Ancient Guru

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    Cloud based computing my ass. It is just a new name given old technology with a new spin. The new spin being you have now idea where the server is located that holds the data. The "cloud" just reduces the storage space strain on buisenesses. This is no major leap forward in productivity one bit. Just all about how effective marketing is on the phsyche.
     
  17. CronoGraal

    CronoGraal Ancient Guru

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    1) In the big picture PC gamers are a vast minority. Yes, there are companies who cater to our needs but in the bigger picture we're just a small fraction of the average PC user.

    2) You wouldn't be "giving up" anything.

    I assume the future of "PC" are with tablets and docked tablets. No one is pretending that tablets are anywhere close to replacing PC's, but for someone who doesn't use PC's for anything other than word processing, minor web surfing, and other basic tasks, a docked tablet can already do all of that today.

    In the future hardware will naturally evolve, and there will eventually come a time when some performance is sacrificed for the usability/practicality of a tablet. By then I suspect phone functions will already be implemented to them aswell.

    There will always be a place for gamers, aka enthusiasts, but you need to look how other other technology has changed. For example, the early flat screen monitors that became mainstream and popularly used were vastly inferior to CRT monitors. It still ended up working out because it was much more practical, despite the inferior performance.

    I wuoldn't say the world is over PC's, just PC's as we know them. A docked tablet is still a PC, is it not?
     
  18. Denial

    Denial Ancient Guru

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    k

    I don't really care for the hacker groups and the people that even understand what they are trying to accomplish is limited to a extremely small minority. Most people hate them because their closed Sony PS3 store or whatever.

    Plenty of cloud based storage systems already exist, EC2 for instance is gigantic, same with a bunch of Google web services. People use them. Once consumer oriented products start taking advantage, consumers will use them too.

    Don't get me wrong, I think new legislation needs to be written up - especially after seeing what the FBI did to megaupload and the ramifications of that. There needs to be laws that allow users to maintain complete control of their data when it's in the cloud and free that data if need be.

    The idea of moving information and computation off client machines and onto server clusters isn't new, but the effort and capability to do it definitely is.

    You mention storage, but besides that you have - large scale power reduction, scalable computing power/cost, labor reduction, and added data security.

    In the consumer space their are tons of advantages. I replace my phone my contacts/apps are all there ready for me to install upon my new one. With Windows 8, I can log into any machine with my Windows live account and have access to all my Metro Apps/My Documents in Skydrive. Eventually this will lead to even more stuff - for instance medical/insurance data being shared between hospitals/doctors etc.

    Again, I think new legislation needs to be drafted in order to allow the consumer to gain better control of their data, but the advantages are definitely there.
     
  19. Clouseau

    Clouseau Ancient Guru

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    Effort, yes that is new but capability is not. Just more cost effective since bandwidth price has dropped.

    Power reduction is becuase of new hardware. Otherwise labor and power just moved to server cluster that is being utilized.

    Like previously said the only new spin is not knowing where the server is located. Apps stored on a phone, whether it is backed up on your personal pc, local network server, or "cloud" makes no difference. Big deal the site address is hard coded; the account the data is stored under is still being logged into and then downloaded. Bandwidth and the cost of it were the only things that prevented the so called cloud from being pushed ealier. All it is is offsite storage. Support costs just shifted places. 100% marketing spins on everything you listed.
     
  20. yelsewshane

    yelsewshane Banned

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    Around a year from now touchscreen laptops with 360 degree screens with windows 8 will dominate the market and larger 5 inch srcreen phones with windows 8 will dominate the phone market.
     

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